Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Recent trades
25- 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $1.40 53m ago
- 0x7494…e2a3 BUY Yes $100.00 54m ago
- 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $0.82 56m ago
- 0x882c…171f SELL Yes $0.00 57m ago
- 0x7494…e2a3 BUY Yes $58.00 57m ago
- 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $0.77 1h ago
- 0x882c…171f SELL Yes $0.00 1h ago
- 0x16c9…6af4 BUY Yes $55.00 1h ago
- 0xcb7c…d18e BUY No $150.00 2h ago
- 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $0.04 2h ago
- 0xeb23…e066 BUY Yes $3.00 2h ago
- 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $1.77 3h ago
- 0x882c…171f SELL Yes $0.01 3h ago
- 0xa557…5e8a SELL No $1125.85 3h ago
- 0x16c9…6af4 SELL Yes $53.80 3h ago
- 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $0.28 4h ago
- 0x6a49…d276 SELL Yes $4.50 4h ago
- 0x882c…171f SELL Yes $0.00 4h ago
- 0x5040…96cf BUY Yes $20.00 4h ago
- 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $1.40 5h ago
- 0x882c…171f SELL Yes $0.01 5h ago
- 0xd512…79b3 BUY Yes $100.00 5h ago
- 0x207a…f039 SELL Yes $8.18 5h ago
- 0xa557…5e8a BUY No $456.73 6h ago
- 0x201b…b9d3 BUY No $10.00 6h ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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