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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Oil Vol. $1,334,613 50 traders

30+10%
40+100%
60+2%
40+6%
$1,334,613 Vol. Oil

Outcomes

7
Chance
60+
2% ▼ 1
80+
<1%
100+
<1%
40+ Resolved
100% ▲ 18
50+
3%
30+
10% ▼ 2
40+
6% ▼ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0xc04a…e3ae BUY No $5.00 12m ago
  • 0x39df…4037 BUY No $270.90 3h ago
  • 0xd4ab…8253 SELL No $41.22 3h ago
  • 0x7db8…ed19 BUY No $90.30 7h ago
  • 0xb1a1…d308 BUY No $19.42 7h ago
  • 0xb1a1…d308 BUY No $246.00 7h ago
  • 0xb1a1…d308 BUY No $97.27 7h ago
  • 0x7ea7…078b BUY No $15.00 7h ago
  • 0x389a…397d SELL No $255.19 7h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.16 7h ago
  • 0xea67…554b SELL No $6.26 7h ago
  • 0xf18e…3cd4 BUY No $33.59 8h ago
  • 0x667d…802b BUY No $9.00 8h ago
  • 0x0275…b936 SELL Yes $0.42 8h ago
  • 0xd27d…fa96 SELL Yes $6.75 8h ago
  • 0x0a08…c2e6 BUY No $9.83 9h ago
  • 0x0a08…c2e6 SELL No $9.80 9h ago
  • 0xff06…2f60 SELL No $960.74 9h ago
  • 0x4414…c9ff SELL Yes $1.79 9h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.24 9h ago
  • 0xceaa…bc65 BUY No $49.40 9h ago
  • 0x2c29…8f12 BUY No $15.00 12h ago
  • 0xf847…ee6a SELL No $76.87 12h ago
  • 0xf847…ee6a SELL No $105.45 12h ago
  • 0x25db…28de BUY Yes $32.20 12h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.01 12h ago
  • 0x49e9…8f85 BUY No $1063.85 12h ago
  • 0x5e1b…1500 BUY No $1.68 13h ago
  • 0xc644…c4c4 BUY No $1.27 13h ago
  • 0xcec8…d469 SELL Yes $40.32 13h ago
  • 0xfc1f…a246 BUY No $62.50 13h ago
  • 0xfc1f…a246 BUY No $125.00 13h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $20.67 13h ago
  • 0xf847…ee6a SELL Yes $20.66 13h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 13h ago
  • 0x82b3…3768 SELL Yes $0.07 13h ago
  • 0x25db…28de SELL Yes $64.47 13h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 14h ago
  • 0xfc1f…a246 BUY No $62.50 14h ago
  • 0x7f22…b3e3 SELL Yes $0.20 15h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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