Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Recent trades
25- 0x3328…1b67 BUY Yes $1.00 3m ago
- 0x4146…c342 BUY Yes $1.19 4h ago
- 0x4146…c342 SELL Yes $3.09 4h ago
- 0x4146…c342 BUY Yes $1.19 5h ago
- 0x6ef6…92e4 BUY No $300.00 5h ago
- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $4.60 5h ago
- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $4.60 5h ago
- 0x6816…426e BUY Yes $2.00 5h ago
- 0x78d9…b4f9 BUY Yes $50.00 6h ago
- 0x4146…c342 BUY Yes $1.19 6h ago
- 0xa4ff…4c16 SELL Yes $95.62 6h ago
- 0x4146…c342 BUY Yes $1.09 6h ago
- 0x475a…0364 BUY No $10.00 6h ago
- 0xacbb…6cb4 BUY No $238.00 15h ago
- 0x2f5f…c3b4 SELL No $0.99 18h ago
- 0x5099…9862 SELL No $0.99 18h ago
- 0x560a…c872 SELL No $0.99 18h ago
- 0x54c5…1d4b SELL No $0.99 18h ago
- 0xbafc…9a17 SELL No $0.99 18h ago
- 0x560a…c872 BUY No $1.00 18h ago
- 0x2f5f…c3b4 BUY No $1.00 18h ago
- 0x5099…9862 BUY No $1.00 18h ago
- 0xbafc…9a17 BUY No $1.00 18h ago
- 0x54c5…1d4b BUY No $1.00 18h ago
- 0x78d9…b4f9 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 23
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
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