Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Recent trades
25- 0x510f…a43c SELL Yes $0.90 6h ago
- 0xfbea…91fd SELL No $1.01 9h ago
- 0xf257…1950 SELL Yes $2.70 21h ago
- 0x510f…a43c SELL No $4.54 23h ago
- 0xddd3…355c BUY Yes $0.92 23h ago
- 0x0781…c4ff SELL Yes $2.64 Jul 23
- 0x1e5c…6b62 SELL No $20.72 Jul 23
- 0x0781…c4ff SELL Yes $10.50 Jul 23
- 0x3907…e2d0 BUY Yes $3.50 Jul 23
- 0x0781…c4ff SELL Yes $1.65 Jul 22
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $1.29 Jul 22
- 0xf057…6ec2 SELL No $103.42 Jul 21
- 0xca30…a0b2 BUY Yes $2.61 Jul 20
- 0x8e61…cfa3 SELL No $1829.71 Jul 20
- 0xca30…a0b2 BUY Yes $5.50 Jul 20
- 0x8e61…cfa3 BUY No $1727.84 Jul 20
- 0xe175…7d48 SELL No $27.90 Jul 18
- 0xe175…7d48 SELL No $27.90 Jul 18
- 0xf057…6ec2 SELL No $110.51 Jul 15
- 0xf057…6ec2 SELL No $6.84 Jul 15
- 0xddf6…6b37 SELL Yes $1.26 Jul 15
- 0xe175…7d48 SELL No $73.60 Jul 15
- 0xdbb1…c6f2 SELL No $193.35 Jul 15
- 0x6f8d…6e2a SELL No $10.16 Jul 14
- 0x3080…337b BUY Yes $3.22 Jul 14
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Comments
where is drop guys?
Flavio Bolsonaro e uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno: Estadao 11/04
O marqueteiro do ratinho com certeza é alguém que sabe muito de política brasileira.
É uma folha em branco? Acho que você quis dizer "tem uma ficha corrida"
You dont know nothing about the researchs and probability, it shoul be 75-25
Pesquisa mais recente dando 35% pro Flávio e 33% pro Lula, mas segundo a sua "probabilidade", a chance deveria ser 75-25 de não ter segundo turno, confia...
Estadao: Flavio Bolsonaro eh uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno
Bota o título da matéria completo, faltou: "Disse o marqueteiro do Ratinho", uau. Se você está tão certo disso, entra all-in então.
Não sei se o mais estúpido é essa frase ou quem leva ela a sério
I'd give less than 5% chance of this happening... I'm putting some money on it
Yeah, this price doesn't make any sense...
Qual a pegadinha?
Only FHC won in the first round. The country is divided. Almost 7% white/null votes, Lula doesn't even have 40% of intentions as of january.
better than cdi
wrong dates on end...on top should be 2026
se depender do alexandre de moraes nao vai ter segundo tuno.
Add Claudio Castro, please
UGABUGA lets goooooooo
free money honestly just low liquidity and it will take too long aswell
i agree coconut, not the best bet for us rn
Fernando Morais, Lula’s biographer and friend, said he believed that if the 2026 election were held today, “Lula would win in the first round”
Nobody asked Fernando
Kkkkkkkkkkkkkk
Eu acredito que Lula ganha so no segundo turno!!!!
Lula Vai ganhar so no segundo turno
easy bet...
Really?
Almost impossible for a president to be elected on the first round in Brazil. The country is very divided and both sides have high amount of desapproval
the estimated end date is wrong
They fixed
Fernando Henrique Cardoso em 1998
Not gonna happen. Doesn’t matter the candidate…