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Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

Tech Vol. $102,059 50 traders

#111%
#546%
#1096%
#320%
$102,059 Vol. Tech

Outcomes

4
Chance
#3
20%
#5
46% ▼ 2
#10
96% ▼ 2
#1
11%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x25c5…8581 BUY Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0x25c5…8581 BUY Yes $12.00 1h ago
  • 0xb41e…11fd SELL No $0.08 2h ago
  • 0x269a…f6bf SELL Yes $3.56 2h ago
  • 0x159f…7565 BUY No $10.00 2h ago
  • 0x159f…7565 BUY No $20.00 2h ago
  • 0xb89f…1c44 SELL No $24.57 5h ago
  • 0x1b9f…47c2 SELL Yes $6.78 5h ago
  • 0x51de…9e4a BUY Yes $4.05 5h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $12.83 5h ago
  • 0xd84c…8273 BUY Yes $5.00 10h ago
  • 0xaf33…1e17 SELL No $9.80 10h ago
  • 0xa3b4…88df BUY Yes $3.36 10h ago
  • 0x564f…7026 SELL No $89.44 10h ago
  • 0xee8a…f0b0 BUY Yes $10.00 11h ago
  • 0x9d06…2be2 SELL Yes $0.98 14h ago
  • 0x0fda…8cfc SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x7fe0…809d SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0xca21…54ac SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x14da…9018 SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x4821…22d0 SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x4951…c2f7 SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x460d…ecfa SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x47f2…4564 SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x4f51…cb02 SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x24a8…c38f SELL Yes $0.99 15h ago
  • 0x4951…c2f7 BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x24a8…c38f BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x0fda…8cfc BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x7fe0…809d BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0xca21…54ac BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x14da…9018 BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x460d…ecfa BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x4f51…cb02 BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x4821…22d0 BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x47f2…4564 BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x9d06…2be2 BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x6747…b5fd BUY Yes $1.00 16h ago
  • 0x5f57…c270 BUY Yes $32.11 17h ago
  • 0x5f57…c270 BUY Yes $19.00 17h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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