Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Outcomes
6Recent trades
40- 0x61e9…425a BUY No $6.15 7m ago
- 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $331.73 4h ago
- 0x6816…8484 SELL Yes $24.41 5h ago
- 0x3773…f0dd SELL Yes $64.67 6h ago
- 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $20.16 8h ago
- 0xdcec…d169 BUY Yes $8.82 9h ago
- 0xcca0…68fc BUY Yes $10.00 12h ago
- 0x3069…f8ef SELL No $206.60 12h ago
- 0x3069…f8ef BUY No $236.18 12h ago
- 0x3069…f8ef BUY No $2000.00 12h ago
- 0x3069…f8ef BUY Yes $800.00 12h ago
- 0x2a2b…4b88 SELL Yes $9.88 13h ago
- 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $42.48 14h ago
- 0xea56…1dda SELL Yes $0.97 20h ago
- 0xea56…1dda BUY Yes $1.00 20h ago
- 0xc946…9c31 SELL No $23.73 21h ago
- 0xc946…9c31 BUY No $10.13 21h ago
- 0x58fd…43a6 SELL Yes $0.01 21h ago
- 0xc946…9c31 BUY No $13.63 21h ago
- 0xa4e0…6392 SELL Yes $37.28 Jul 23
- 0x7fb9…d622 SELL Yes $32.92 Jul 23
- 0xe8c4…ea5c SELL No $8.09 Jul 23
- 0x7fb9…d622 SELL Yes $23.83 Jul 23
- 0x7fb9…d622 SELL Yes $39.43 Jul 23
- 0xa0f2…1848 BUY Yes $1.26 Jul 23
- 0x58fd…43a6 SELL Yes $1.00 Jul 23
- 0x47fe…3a28 SELL Yes $2.50 Jul 23
- 0x47fe…3a28 SELL Yes $1.00 Jul 23
- 0x9fb7…3297 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 23
- 0x6e37…8374 SELL No $11.70 Jul 23
- 0x6e37…8374 SELL No $8.78 Jul 23
- 0x6e37…8374 BUY No $20.50 Jul 23
- 0x2b04…6477 SELL Yes $2.75 Jul 23
- 0x2a2b…4b88 BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 23
- 0x23d8…0288 BUY Yes $160.17 Jul 23
- 0x7fb9…d622 BUY Yes $96.18 Jul 22
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $3.92 Jul 22
- 0x3e4a…dced BUY Yes $8.20 Jul 22
- 0x0b1c…cc8a SELL No $7.38 Jul 22
- 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $217.39 Jul 22
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Comments
i have heard that France is "burining"
Berkeley now gives 2.5% to "1"
Hansen et all believe this year will be number 1.
6 or lower
6
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
Seems fairly priced
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
Why second and fourth has around 40% but third one has 6%. This doesn't make sense to me.
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
hell warm
haaaa
go 2026
if you actually look at wallet activity instead of comments you see a different picture
Brother you are the only comment
Lol