Venezuela leader end of 2026?

ANÁLISIS | Presidenta a secas: por qué el Gobierno de Venezuela dejó de llamar "encargada" a Rodríguez y habla cada vez menos de Maduro CNEE report :)

If the universidad estates say delcy is the head of state counts?

Jorge Rodríguez will soon be extradited to the us.

What about if none of the above results president or head of state? What would the resolution be in that event?

The question is who is the leader not who is the constitutional president....How can you lead from a prison?

obviously you cant, but in the paper maduro is still the leader, and polymarket decides the result based on that

why maduro's so high?

corina to the moon, hear me out, i predicted it, rn 3,3cents yes. i will rise tomorrow for 10% at least

lol

hamburger

what’s the strongest argument against Maduro here?

Delcy Rodríguez traded around 50-60% in Polymarket’s “Venezuela leader end of 2026?” market until Polymarket added an “Additional context” rule clarification on April 18 stating that delegated/de facto power doesn’t count as officially holding the presidency, after which her price collapsed to ~12%. Was this a legitimate clarification?

I don't think it's fair. We are not interested in technicalities on who is president. It would be absurd to bet on Maduro when he possibly will be in jail.

Flagging this for other traders and for the team’s awareness. I (and I suspect others) opened positions on Delcy Rodríguez before April 2026, as she is the one effectively exercising presidential decision-making authority in Venezuela. At that point Delcy was trading in the 50-60% range. On April 18, Polymarket added an “Additional context” note to the rules stating that temporary legal measures delegating presidential powers don’t count as an official transfer, and that Maduro remains officially recognized regardless of who is actually exercising the powers. Right after that note went up, Delcy’s price collapsed to ~12%, while Maduro jumped to 78%+. The issue isn’t the underlying fact pattern — it’s whether this was a genuine clarification of a pre-existing standard (allowed under the rules: clarifications “cannot change the fundamental intent of the question”) or a new interpretive standard introduced mid-market that wasn’t disclosed when positions were opened. If “officially holds” was always meant to exclude de facto/delegated power, that should have been explicit from day one, not added four months into trading. Curious if others who traded this market before April 18 read the original rules the same way, and whether this is something worth raising with the Polymarlet team before resolution.

same here

Any Machado news?

when the rules change 4/17?

buy Delcy Rodriguez strong

NO is the only side that makes sense to me here. the market is acting like the UN file is frozen forever, but it’s not. maduro is already under the U.S. case, and now Saab gets extradited too. if Saab talks or strengthens the case, the odds of maduro getting legally cooked go way higher. NO is just betting reality catches up to the paperwork before end of 2026. [link removed]

I don't believe the UN will change this unless the Venezuelan government asks them to. As far as I know, there is nothing that prohibits Maduro from officially being the President of Venezuela, even if he is elsewhere, even in a foreign jail.

Let them cook

The incumbent advantage is overstated in this market

😆😆😆

Im in venezuela right now, everyone thinks there will be elections, but then can occur next year only FYI

Today Maria Corina talks about elections in 12 months. That means she thinks de Supreme Court will change the Maduro’s status in Venezuela. After 03/06 (180 days after the temporary absence) the absolute absence is declared. So… good bye Maduro

“…and official government sources and statements continue to identify him as the President of Venezuela. “ :) do not forget about 03/06/2026

While everyone was chasing liquidity rewards yesterday, Ken was busy dumping 20% of his shares :). Fact is, the 'temporary absence' legal window expires in Venezuela on 06/03/2026. The ongoing judicial reform targets the Supreme Court (TSJ), which handles Maduro’s status. We're seeing a repeat of the legal maneuvers used when Chávez died.

Keep in mind: Maduro is on trial in the U.S., trying to declare himself a prisoner of war while simultaneously claiming the presidency. U.S. prosecutors have no use for a Maduro who is still legally president. That makes 06/03/2026 the most vital date to watch the Plenary Chamber of the new court :)

Yeah, "No" is free money right now. We're still in April, come on... The crooked UN has a lot of time to realize he's not in charge

Or “official government sources and statements” :) sounds good

By official government sources they mean Venezuelan Government, dumfuq and same with the UN they put there whatever the Government of Venezuela tells them to do.

Yep. But you have to take into account that Maduro is facing impeachment proceedings, and as part of his defense, he declared himself president. That hinders the trial in the US. Therefore, after June 3rd (the date on which the temporary absence legally ends in Venezuela), it's very likely that a new legal figure will emerge as Delcy's president :).

crooked UN? really? Is Trump crooked or honest then? Strange judgement here

They won’t say a thing about this shit

Good time to buy no Maduro :)

Whoever support Delcy deserves lost all that money :)

exactly only if u support maduro u deserve to win

What kind of nonsense are you writing?)

;)

Trip to profit

Why yes?

The truth: the market can decide whatever it want with the new rules

The rules were changed?

Why is maduro so high?

Why is maduro so low?

REALLY

Maduro has been captured by Delta Force

I just check the news by looking at prediction markets like Poly, as most media outlets report nonsense.

This market is rigged and is a scam. I'm a Venezuelan and the official president, by supreme court ruling is Delcy Rodriguez.

can you please send this proposal to UN?

This is absurd! Plain old scam…

PM clearly inciting physical violence against Nicolas Maduro with this clarification, not good optics

Are you gonna send one of your little drone toys yall people use to kill civilians to Maduro's jail or what?

why can new rules be added? WTF??does this mean that the outcome can be directly manipulated?

Yeah, changed rules after bets were made, instead of head of state it become "a president"

The president of Venezuela is the head of state of Venezuela

Polymarket + Uma its fckning scamers

It should be renamed scammarket

this is hilarious,polymarket team like a bitch