US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
Outcomes
5Recent trades
40- 0x5297…7b99 SELL Yes $4.77 10m ago
- 0x1d35…f929 BUY No $30.00 17m ago
- 0xe409…3a7a BUY No $4.98 22m ago
- 0x5d52…7ae0 SELL No $96.32 32m ago
- 0xe95d…21d9 SELL Yes $38.05 34m ago
- 0xb04a…acfc SELL Yes $2.45 34m ago
- 0xb04a…acfc SELL Yes $0.25 34m ago
- 0xd501…1814 SELL Yes $0.12 34m ago
- 0xd5ac…9048 BUY Yes $170.00 35m ago
- 0xa0bc…d428 SELL Yes $1.43 35m ago
- 0xe85e…fd9f SELL No $4.92 55m ago
- 0xe85e…fd9f SELL No $4.20 55m ago
- 0x75ac…33d7 SELL Yes $0.85 56m ago
- 0x886a…0944 BUY No $159.92 56m ago
- 0xef32…265c SELL No $101.64 57m ago
- 0xd417…77ba BUY No $14.99 57m ago
- 0xb8e6…9767 SELL No $31.74 58m ago
- 0xb5b3…507b SELL No $98.40 1h ago
- 0x6242…4cd0 BUY Yes $1.00 1h ago
- 0x6242…4cd0 BUY Yes $1.00 1h ago
- 0x1c3d…2ff5 SELL No $132.00 1h ago
- 0x0f21…3d6e SELL Yes $9.04 1h ago
- 0x0f21…3d6e SELL Yes $140.63 1h ago
- 0x4335…b01a BUY Yes $10.00 1h ago
- 0x07bb…fcca BUY No $19.66 1h ago
- 0x8907…b9a3 SELL No $1.65 1h ago
- 0x3d60…6df2 SELL No $28.09 1h ago
- 0xc662…b919 SELL No $491.83 1h ago
- 0xf0fa…efb0 BUY No $5.10 1h ago
- 0x88ee…c234 SELL Yes $45.35 1h ago
- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $5.04 1h ago
- 0xd501…1814 SELL Yes $0.00 1h ago
- 0xbaa2…2c73 SELL Yes $2.04 1h ago
- 0xd501…1814 SELL Yes $0.03 1h ago
- 0xbaa2…2c73 SELL Yes $26.92 1h ago
- 0xa636…3c2f SELL Yes $0.31 1h ago
- 0x86ee…511f SELL Yes $4.75 1h ago
- 0x84a8…3358 BUY Yes $4.00 2h ago
- 0x6196…6208 SELL No $42.00 2h ago
- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $5.04 2h ago
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
Comments
Iranian officials report US air attack on city of Piranshahr Iran’s West Azerbaijan crisis management organisation says a site in the city of Piranshahr, near the border with Iraq, was struck in a US air attack at about 9am (05:30 GMT), according to the semi-official Fars News Agency. Several vehicles were damaged in the attack on Friday, the organisation said, adding that no figures were yet available for the number of people killed or wounded.
Según Polymarket EEUU e Irán ya han alcanzado un "acuerdo de paz permanente" así que no sé de qué cese al fuego hablan
Wasn’t there a permanent peace deal?Will it count as a deal again if they agree once more to a deal with different conditions to both countries?Polymarket would never allow a scam to happen on their website im sure /s
Trump says Iran not ready for deal, signals further US attacks President Donald Trump said Thursday that the Islamic Republic was “not ready” to reach an agreement and “needs more of the same,” as he reiterated that Tehran would never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Already got screwed by "permanent peace" resolving to Yes, no thanks
Read the talmudic fine print: "This market will resolve to YES if there's a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran" - that's not a US x Iran ceasefire market because if Iran continues firing during US announced ceasefire the market would still resolve to YES
Since when does Iran continuing firing unprovoked? It's never happened.
I don't think there will be a second chance for them to negotiate anything on US terms again and it would be Mojtaba's decision but by the time this would happen the market would already resolve based solely on Trump tweets.
As long as the orange baboon is still in the white house, THIS IS NOT HAPPENING.
hahaha
US has agreed Saudi Arabia is allowed to enrich uranium, per WSJ. This makes the Iran no nuclear weapons more improbable to accept. There might be a 10 day pause or a few day pause but not a 2 week pause.
Trump says US ‘not finished at all’ as Iran attacks continue US President Donald Trump has met with Lebanese leader Joseph Aoun in Washington, DC. It was the first time a Lebanese head of state has visited the White House since 2009. While Trump hailed his relationship with Aoun, he also had strong words for Tehran.
Yes
No*
if it resolves in 2 weeks by the listed date then why not js have the listed date be 2 weeks in the future? that would make it much more clear.
sounds like incoming scam
its if the ceasefire starts by date x So if they stop shooting by july 24, we get 2 weeks to wait to see if they start shooting again if they start shooting again it goes no
ty
what does this have to do with scams
Remember to never buy into these type of markets they are a complete scam and the whales will “win” no matter what. Trust me i learnt this the hard way
these types of markets? i am watching out for iran markets but im curious if theres any other specific markets to watch out for too
I thought we had permanent peace on june 15 ....
Well Trump’s sons are now partners of Polymarket,cant hope for something fair and honest on this platform after that
Just another scam market wait for the whales to vote and close it early. Bullshit polymarket
US begins 10th consecutive night of Iran strikes, CENTCOM says US forces began a new round of strikes against Iran at 4 p.m. ET on Monday at the direction of the commander in chief, CENTCOM said in a post on X.
BREAKING: Mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in hostilities between the US and ISIS-like Iran to revive their fragile interim peace agreement. Negotiation with ISIS-like Iran might be successful!
both sides prefer war than peace
especially the us 🤣
US to send additional F-16s, F-35s and refueling tankers to Mideast - CNN
I can't believe they have the audacity to create this market after resolving YES to the US-Iran PERNAMENT PEACE market.. FK SCAM
New war, new market.
Why is yes spiking? No actual reason at all
Insider trading
does July 18 resolve in 2 weeks, or is it going to resolve any moment now? im a bit confused, also polymarket should update UI to account for different timezones
if it resolves in 2 weeks by the listed date then why not js have the listed date be 2 weeks in the future? that would make it much more clear
Go to the market, Israel, close the sky until. Buy yes, and you will profit.
why are u spamming this on every market
I am making possibly -EV bets here for hedging purposes, let me know here if you are interested in big orders for month end
I am interested, what price?
Let me think more and get back, having some second thought since it might not be a great hedge
lmk what u want bro im always willing to provide liq for a +ev bet
the avengers
yet another scam market
I don't understand this one. It's not possible for it to resolve YES legitimately for the 24th. But pricing 15 cents
You are stupid.
how is he stupid i dont get it, it says since market creation
Read the rules
Nopp
So a land invasion and occupation of territory, that doesn't involve air strikes, is not a qualifying military action? Per the third paragraph.
Mate who tf is gonna invade without airstrikes
Kurds.
Wait what? Ceasefire? We’re in a permanent peace though? 2 week ceasefire doesn’t count 🤡
permanent peace is for the first Iran War. Now it is the second Iran War.
😂😂😂😂
上次无耻的永久协议，这次又要故技重施，再次抢劫了吗？
上次永久协议不是选的是吗？抢了我那么多钱，又来恶心，搞这种盘。