US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Outcomes
7Recent trades
24- 0xc3b6…90d3 SELL No $3.95 May 1
- 0xb1bd…2a4d SELL No $5.30 May 1
- 0x409d…d5ee SELL No $25.00 May 1
- 0xa35e…0e64 SELL No $102.60 May 1
- 0xdc5e…26d2 SELL No $5.23 May 1
- 0x9ad0…bf3d SELL No $214.79 May 1
- 0x1dd1…a156 SELL No $99.90 May 1
- 0x1dd1…a156 SELL No $99.90 May 1
- 0x47ab…95df BUY No $13490.49 May 1
- 0x8adf…48cd BUY No $44.95 May 1
- 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $7.00 May 1
- 0xe6b3…6d48 BUY No $1.54 May 1
- 0xb50d…a49b BUY Yes $1.00 May 1
- 0xdf17…97d1 SELL No $15199.11 Apr 30
- 0xd039…2532 SELL No $7053.05 Apr 30
- 0x88f6…dfd6 SELL Yes $0.29 Apr 30
- 0x1d43…6c53 SELL Yes $1.10 Apr 30
- 0x11ae…bb2f SELL Yes $0.25 Apr 30
- 0x7b9e…d704 BUY Yes $1.00 Apr 30
- 0x8d6a…3ae9 SELL Yes $0.21 Apr 30
- 0xb220…5f71 BUY No $108.89 Apr 30
- 0x8828…437d BUY No $110.00 Apr 30
- 0x7329…635b BUY No $105.00 Apr 30
- 0xe564…1e80 SELL No $1.00 Apr 30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comments
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. 😮😮😮
you know where is drop?
Yolft predicts no peace deal by June end, forget US obtaining uranium
who even Yes this
hello
BrightStars sold 26,085 Yes for June 30 at 2.7¢ ($695)
hey
1:21 PM - Trump: I am not considering a covert operation to seize Iran uranium. There's no reason to get Iran nuclear dust, it's entombed.
you never know. Trump said he will unearthen the nuclear dust and he will not end the war until he gets it.
So if Iran ships the Uranium to China, and China agrees with the US it won't give it back to Iran unless the US violates the deal - does that count as the Uranium being "under US control" in the rules? Indirectly in a legal way it kinda is, just not physical. That likely outcome should be clarified by Polymarket or there should be some consensus how it would resolve
And the rules say "physical custody OR control" and "US territory or elsewhere" - so in a typical resolution dispute drama it could be argued, even if far fetched, that China holding it qualifies as legal control outside US territory
It will be shipped to China
So the US buys it from China or what?
TheQuietRisk - mad ?
come on mojtaba just give Trump 1 miligram of uranium and we all will be happy
Stop The Delay
no? i'm too lazy to figure out why.
pulled this up on Ten poly on a whim and now I genuinely can't look away
fu
??
Just go in an nip the uranium lmao
not easy
I could do it
I'll see what I can do
emergency alert ! [link removed]
hmmmmm
you should learn iranian military history if you think that US obtains uranium
take a hear here [link removed]
no chance iran will let it do
🔥🔥🔥🔥
why do you bet so much
exiting his position 🤐
don t click on link its scam
Uranusium
that guy TheQuietRisk is cooked
I really hate that phrase “any quantity”. What about atmospheric material collected from low flights over the site we bombed for monitoring purposes? Hmmmm.
maybe some powder work idk
I dont really get the price on this one...
Considering the current Iranian proposal is to give some of the Uranium to a third country, likely Russia/China/Pakistan, so that it can be returned to them if further negotiations fail, how does everyone understand the third country rule here on Polymarket? "“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere." this section. My interpretation that the current proposed third country transfer would not resolve this market to YES, since it is unlikely to give the US physical possession - at most they would likely have inspectors or the word of the country actually receiving the Uranium. "Physical custody or control" to me implies for instance the ability to not give it back to Iran if requested, exactly what Iran is not wanting to agree to. The whole rule is kinda nonsense though, as I can not imagine any scenario where it is stored in a country like Russia but at the same time under US physical custody or control - the only such place in Russia I suppose would be the US embassy, it's not like they'd let the US fly the uranium themselves to Russia, or let the US rent a compound with US soldiers and the Uranium in that compound, which would imply the "physical custody or control" the rules mention... If Russia just secures it and says "you got my word US we won't send it back to Iran" that obviously does not qualify as US control.
correct
correct+
What if the us invades iran to take it
If they mix some into trump's coffee how will this resolve?
What if the aliens take it and give it to us
poly95
RAN'S RESPONSE TO US INCLUDES PROPOSAL TO DILUTE URANIUM & TRANSFER SOME TO THIRD COUNTRY - WSJ
6 cents for yes may 31 seems cheap af
Guys Iran don’t had uranium
Bros risking their money based on what trump says..
Trump just anounced it lol
but not by a specific date
Trump just anounced that the uranium is going to the US
Axios, citing two informed sources: Iran has agreed to remove the highly enriched uranium
Trump warns strikes on Iran will restart at 'higher level than before' if peace deal not agreed - bbc
Axios