US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Outcomes
7Recent trades
40- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $4.75 5m ago
- 0x37e1…3d42 SELL No $10.55 45m ago
- 0xe738…8ea5 SELL Yes $0.46 1h ago
- 0xc7b0…bbac SELL No $12.40 2h ago
- 0x10e4…b019 BUY No $1277.82 2h ago
- 0xa108…abd3 BUY No $2000.00 4h ago
- 0x9d77…cf31 SELL Yes $17.50 5h ago
- 0x5449…992b BUY No $1.10 5h ago
- 0x23b4…8e7a SELL No $13.98 5h ago
- 0x77a9…6bb5 SELL No $2.82 5h ago
- 0xe672…ed18 SELL No $0.42 5h ago
- 0x61bc…0e16 SELL No $3.69 5h ago
- 0x886e…b9be SELL No $41.95 5h ago
- 0x4108…17b1 SELL No $2.37 5h ago
- 0x2e0b…8070 SELL No $3599.73 5h ago
- 0x3b78…5ce6 SELL Yes $0.15 5h ago
- 0xe955…e4e0 BUY Yes $1.00 6h ago
- 0xe955…e4e0 BUY Yes $1.00 6h ago
- 0x83ae…c0dd SELL No $8.60 6h ago
- 0x6b0e…e3ea SELL Yes $1.29 6h ago
- 0x6b0e…e3ea SELL Yes $1.88 6h ago
- 0x793d…8720 SELL Yes $60.03 6h ago
- 0xfb32…db4a SELL No $7.37 6h ago
- 0xbfbe…2b85 BUY Yes $16.00 7h ago
- 0x60fc…5dec SELL No $8.00 7h ago
- 0xb1a1…d308 BUY No $336.43 7h ago
- 0x8344…290c SELL No $9.97 7h ago
- 0x8344…290c BUY No $10.00 7h ago
- 0x8344…290c SELL No $9.97 7h ago
- 0x8344…290c BUY No $10.00 7h ago
- 0x5482…d034 SELL Yes $4.23 8h ago
- 0xa4d1…7f7b BUY No $35.44 8h ago
- 0xd27d…fa96 SELL Yes $23.34 8h ago
- 0xa15b…8253 BUY No $50.00 8h ago
- 0xad52…11ac SELL Yes $70.00 9h ago
- 0x0882…15b9 BUY No $17.40 9h ago
- 0xc662…b919 BUY Yes $1.17 10h ago
- 0xc662…b919 SELL No $437.00 10h ago
- 0x60fc…5dec BUY No $7.99 10h ago
- 0x534f…28d7 BUY No $15.00 10h ago
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. A qualifying written diplomatic instrument must: (i) Be identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting; (ii) Establish at least one specific obligation limiting Iran's nuclear program through a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested, which may take the form of a defined limit, prohibition, or quantity (e.g., a specific cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, or an explicit commitment for Iran to surrender, destroy, or dilute its enriched uranium stockpile). Non-specific or vague restrictions, with no defined metric (e.g., a pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons, a commitment to maintain the status quo, or an agreement to abide IAEA monitoring or inspections requirements that do not specifically restrict Iran’s nuclear program) will not qualify. The content of the qualifying instrument must be expressed as an agreed obligation to be implemented. The following do not qualify: (i) a provision the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument; (ii) a provision explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation; (iii) a floor, placeholder, or minimum standard established explicitly for the purpose of structuring ongoing or future talks. A definite and unconditional obligation may qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the exact implementation date, timeframe, or sequencing, remain subject to future arrangements, provided that the obligation still establishes a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested. Conditional obligations do not qualify. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.
Comments
only a moron could think that a final nuclear deal will be agreed in 2026. I keep a chunk of money here as a nice safe bond
Hoh
?
Maybe if the allocation is given then the deal will happen! Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
source?
X tweet in Hormuz Letter
thank you, however i find unlikely a deal happening simply through allocation of funds, also US will keep denying anyway
A prolonged blockade could force Iran back to the negotiating table. Its economy is already severely weakened by years of sanctions, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating currency and public finances under strain. If its main sources of foreign revenue were to be further reduced – particularly its energy exports – the regime would face an even more severe economic downturn. Under these circumstances, the financial and social pressure could become so great that Tehran would have no choice but to seek a diplomatic compromise in order to avoid a deeper economic collapse.
let’s see
hormuz has way higher leverage on rest of the world than whatever the US is doing to Iran, they wont give up the strait so easily
The resolution criteria is longer than the agreement they'll sign.
...and as many loopholes
Take a hike scammers
Hola
silly to bet on this
so why did u
ok let’s see
Trump would give up major in concessions right prior to midterms, even if it is worse than the Obama deal.
wouldve bet normally
Ha-ha! Any more silly to bet on this? 😃
i'd be careful putting money on something like this. Polymarket isn't exactly reputable on its judgements and they leave themselves a lot of room to rule which ever way the liquidity provider needs to make a profit. You can only trust these swindlers if there is a single defined outcome on a single defined time.
that means i need to bet the opposite of what i wouldve bet normally then, right?
Odds stay low for a final US-lran nuclear deal amid persistent mutual distrust and regional tensions
g m
?
All No odds are high will wait and watch situation
Research Polymarket US x Iran Jun 15 resolution
People never learn. In 1 and 1/2 months Trump will announce that the Iranians have finally agreed to a nuclear deal and then this will resolve yes and then the next day the Iranians will hit four tankers and Trump will threaten to nuke them
where is my comment
gg
How long until they make a second permanent peace deal market? With exact same wording for the lulz
I'm never betting on Polymarket again!!! I have no idea how the fuck such a dumb deal could have been enough for Polymarket to resolve it as YES!!!
Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," - Fars. 😮😮😮
Fars?
a
SCAM DON T BUY NOTHING SCAMMMMMMMMMMMMM
The volume is faked btw.
DO NOT BET ON THIS!!! IT IS A SCAM. Research Polymarket US x Iran Jun 15 resolution.
shouldn't you buy yes shares then dumbass?
This guy is a certified scammer
DO NOT PUT YOUR MONEY. I ALREADY LOST 3000$ ON THE SAME VOTING.！！！操他妈的，同样的投票上一次诈骗我3000美元
DO NOT GAMBLE THIS MARKET, THEY CAN RESOLVE WRONGLY AND YOU CAN'T DO NOTHING ABOUT IT
or win
SCAM POLYMARKET, PREVIOUS ONE SET TO YES BUT WAS A NO!!!!!
Advice: Don’t participate in any project that requires UMA to make the judgment, because they control the votes. If they say yes, it’s yes; if they say no, it’s no. You can’t beat them.
This damn thing finally couldn't resist milking people for money again. The last $400 million scheme was settled as "permanently closed," but when they saw there was still money to be made, they couldn't resist launching another one. Anyone who gets involved this time is a total idiot.🤣
What happened?
这死妈玩意终于忍不住继续圈钱了，上一个4亿的盘结算成了永久结束，看到还有的赚，忍不住再次开圈，这次谁玩谁傻逼了。
操你妈的，6月30号之前签署协议的游戏不是已经判定为YES了吗？为什么现在又把时间放到7月8月了？poly market是搞笑的吗？就是一个诈骗平台。今天做了妓女，明天说自己是处女要300万彩礼才嫁人。真贱
this market is a joke, they fake the result in every case, and reality means nothing to them. stop funding Polyscam
DO NOT PUT YOUR MONEY. I ALREADY LOST 1300$ ON THE SAME VOTING. UMA WILL STEAL YOUR MONEY
UMA grifters will scam this market too and polymarket will be just okay with it. lowlife scammers
Pretty much any signing could result in this resolving to YES beware
not actually, if the content does contain conditional obligations or does not contain measuable action items, it won't qualify Though measurable is ambiguous definition.....
It was not enough from you polymarket to steal on previous USA-Iran permanent peace deal, but you want to do it again? Scammers, completely rigged.
Commitment for a 'measurable action item' also qualifies. Instrument must be definitive(no Conditional obligations). Deal signed but if the text/content is not disclosed by both IRAN and USGOV, external credible source is used. Even polymarket endeavours to setup some applicable rules, it can still lead to disputes.
at this point this idiots are joking with us, shit on the rules on the exact same previous market, replace the word "final" with "permanent" and tries going for the second round of scamming