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US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

Trump Vol. $8,275 50 traders

7%+63%
8%+41%
9%+14%
10%+12%
$8,275 Vol. Trump

Outcomes

6
Chance
5%+
95%
6%+
94%
7%+
63%
8%+
41%
9%+
14%
10%+
12%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x5a24…7510 SELL Yes $31.00 1h ago
  • 0x7594…66e9 BUY Yes $1.17 3h ago
  • 0x6236…6881 SELL No $11.20 4h ago
  • 0x6236…6881 SELL Yes $12.40 4h ago
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $62.00 6h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY No $1.00 6h ago
  • 0xb984…9199 SELL No $25.52 6h ago
  • 0x0479…8177 SELL No $14.04 8h ago
  • 0x812d…1ce0 BUY Yes $1.96 8h ago
  • 0xd19c…e07e BUY Yes $1.96 8h ago
  • 0x018a…9522 SELL No $7.22 8h ago
  • 0xce4d…d0e2 BUY Yes $62.80 8h ago
  • 0xce4d…d0e2 BUY Yes $96.49 8h ago
  • 0xce4d…d0e2 BUY Yes $24.00 8h ago
  • 0x5e50…c665 BUY Yes $2.20 8h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $5.00 8h ago
  • 0xf86c…ba99 BUY Yes $21.93 8h ago
  • 0x34cb…7588 SELL Yes $132.04 8h ago
  • 0xe397…bfcb BUY No $52.02 8h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 8h ago
  • 0xc602…7fc1 SELL Yes $22.26 8h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 8h ago
  • 0xa937…4152 BUY No $5.70 8h ago
  • 0x34cb…7588 BUY Yes $44.58 8h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 8h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 8h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 8h ago
  • 0xdf3b…880a BUY Yes $1.00 8h ago
  • 0x0eec…e587 BUY No $5.28 8h ago
  • 0xc24f…220b BUY No $3.68 8h ago
  • 0xc24f…220b BUY No $5.81 8h ago
  • 0xc782…475a BUY No $1.16 8h ago
  • 0xe397…bfcb BUY Yes $430.80 8h ago
  • 0x96ad…ca65 SELL Yes $2.60 8h ago
  • 0x3565…ac13 SELL No $1.01 8h ago
  • 0x9362…d4a4 SELL Yes $3.60 8h ago
  • 0x34cb…7588 BUY Yes $59.28 8h ago
  • 0x018a…9522 SELL No $10.80 9h ago
  • 0x9578…f066 BUY No $249.86 9h ago
  • 0x34cb…7588 SELL No $65.80 9h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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