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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Tesla Vol. $874,976 50 traders

June 300%
September 3010%
December 3118%
$874,976 Vol. Tesla

Outcomes

3
Chance
December 31
18% ▼ 5
September 30
10%
June 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x3237…5658 SELL Yes $6.13 43m ago
  • 0x3237…5658 SELL Yes $2.51 1h ago
  • 0x1ccd…510d SELL No $5.56 2h ago
  • 0x89f4…6950 BUY Yes $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x7875…0dfb BUY Yes $1.10 2h ago
  • 0xe5dc…1fe6 SELL Yes $8.81 2h ago
  • 0x89f4…6950 BUY Yes $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x89f4…6950 BUY Yes $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $9.90 2h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL Yes $6.26 2h ago
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $87.63 2h ago
  • 0xb040…dbea SELL Yes $30.80 2h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL Yes $3.04 2h ago
  • 0x0f99…6734 SELL Yes $40.35 2h ago
  • 0xb141…aa3b SELL Yes $15.02 2h ago
  • 0xbf98…4461 SELL Yes $5.98 2h ago
  • 0xc50c…3017 BUY No $117.45 2h ago
  • 0xbf98…4461 SELL Yes $4.52 2h ago
  • 0xb141…aa3b SELL Yes $6.26 2h ago
  • 0x04bf…7caf BUY No $787.80 2h ago
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL No $19.80 3h ago
  • 0x7cea…cc13 SELL No $48.60 3h ago
  • 0x7bc8…cbb7 BUY No $1.00 10h ago
  • 0x8f87…2b4d SELL No $248.39 11h ago
  • 0x1481…c4f5 BUY Yes $2.30 14h ago
  • 0xfe3f…abe7 BUY Yes $20.00 19h ago
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL Yes $1.80 20h ago
  • 0x95a4…0016 BUY Yes $2.43 20h ago
  • 0xa09f…7ba6 SELL No $0.99 21h ago
  • 0xd609…3b19 BUY Yes $1.91 22h ago
  • 0x7cea…cc13 BUY No $49.14 23h ago
  • 0x2975…56e0 BUY Yes $2.10 Jul 23
  • 0xc50c…3017 BUY Yes $3.00 Jul 23
  • 0x082b…ebe9 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 23
  • 0x1049…3a3c SELL No $3.60 Jul 23
  • 0xb838…aada SELL No $0.01 Jul 23
  • 0x6bfb…3070 SELL Yes $1.80 Jul 23
  • 0xc3f6…3910 SELL No $12.51 Jul 23
  • 0x0657…2b79 SELL Yes $1.80 Jul 23
  • 0x002d…47a2 SELL Yes $1.80 Jul 23

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

SIMOMEGA Jul 18

how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol

DontTrustMe Jul 7

Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.

0xe1EF6DA20a953fa234e4B4c05D9ACc79d27a0145-1776960165813 5m ago

Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.

SIMOMEGA Jun 25

dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?

ProofOfWork Jul 2

For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control

SIMOMEGA Jul 3

what are the downsides of a merge then?

BeyondAverage4ck May 26

The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened

SIMOMEGA Jun 23

How?

0xC1F43854000BFF81Da38332Fb25Cf94765bD5344-1768576770320 Mar 13

Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.

ProofOfWork Jul 2

He would gain control.

0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058 Feb 10

H

0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058 Feb 13

G Wells