Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Il est tristoune le marche du lecornu out par rapport a octobre/novembre dernier. Y'a quasi 0 volume la 🫤

Bye bye Lecornu

I doubt it, PS won’t vote the two motions de censure. So there wont be enough votes to kick him out.

Non confidence vote rejected.

In the coming hours, Lecornu will face two motions of censure. They will probably be rejected, but let’s keep our eyes open. [link removed]

awesome

Lecornu ne va jamais partir. jamais. Moi vivant, jamais.

le vote d'aujourd'hui est tout sauf une victoire pour le gouvernement etant donne l'attitude d'horizons et des lr. jamais un tel budget ne pourra etre vote

Frankenstein budget by right and left wing socialists. No validation to be expected from the gov. And yet any reasonable budget imposed top down would end in censor. No way out of the crisis imho

Lecornu's abrupt ouster as French PM by mid-2026 is sparking cabinet reshuffles that could either stabilize Macron's lame-duck era or plunge Paris into deeper coalition chaos.

Lecornu will not fall this year France need a budget before

(this hot mess is obviously far from being over, next question to answer is: what happens if the first part of the 2026 budget bill is rejected in first reading?)

Not if, when

The PS is putting most of the blame on the RN (and not on the government) for the failure of getting their tax measures passed. Good signal that in the short term, they are ok to still support Lecornu's government. They didn't threaten to vote a "motion de censure" today.

gg ez

Obviously it's now too late for the October 31th bet to work out, but the situation is still a hot mess at the moment. The tax proposals of the PS are getting discussed and put to a vote today. Olivier Faure met with Sebastien Lecornu today and declared thereafter that: "the meeting didn't result in any progress or agreement". On one side, I don't necessarly sense a strong willingness from the PS to take down the government. Plus general elections in December would less than ideal for various reasons. But on the other side, the PS kind of put themselves in an inextricable situation. They simply don't hold enough power to force the National Assembly and the Senate to adopt a budget that they claim would be "acceptable" according to them.

lmaoooooooooooooo

Superbe analyse ! C'est tellement vrai !

It's almost over for the 31st of October deadline. A "motion de censure" is voted at least 48 hours after being asked for. So if no "motion de censure" today, October 31 is a done deal.

I agree that it is almost over for the 31st of October deadline. But that being said, if Lecornu considers that he is politically doomed, he might not wait a formal vote to resign. Even more since yesterday, it has become fairly obvious that the budget that will end up being passed is not the one currently discussed and amended in the National Assembly. So the question here: is the PS really fine with that?

Lecornu's government spokeperson announced today they will oppose "zucman light" wealth tax proposal (which is a proposal from the PS). The PS wanted some form of government support on that measure. Let's see now if it's really a dealbreaker...

Next year

No, next year it will be useless, if budget pass, the next time will be in 2026 and it's just before presidential election.

Olivier Faure claims that he is not bluffing (obviously) but he didn't really rev up his threats today. He kind of pushed back his ultimatum deadline actually: "We will know by the end of next week if there is going to be a dissolution or not" & "new elections could take place in November" (his words on LCI). He wants a super wealth tax to get voted, which would allegedly generate even more tax revenue than the old version (the ISF). I have a hard times seeing this assembly agreeing on that. But who knows... For $[link removed] a share, it is worth the gamble imo.

Faure joue un jeu dangereux, si il vote la dissolution c'est potentiellement un PM du RN. Son chantage est un coup de bluff a mon avis (budget en fin d'annee obligatoire)

Il est tout a fait realiste de considerer qu'il cherche simplement a negocier et qu'il se contente d'un entre-deux sur le sujet. Un aspect que je factorise dans mon analyse neanmoins est que je pense qu'il soit peu probable qu'a la fin des fins de ce processus legislatif, le budget qui passera soit vraiment PS-compatible/approved. Vouloir ne pas passer pour un con a l'arrivee en mettant des a present un terme a cette "experience politique" tres incertaine aurait sa logique.

Pour l'heure, le PS maintient sa pression: Boris Vallaud a affirme sur RTL que "tout etait possible" concernant une censure cette semaine du gouvernement.

Nothing will happen

FRANCE SOCIALISTS THREATEN TO OUST GOVERNMENT AMID FRAUGHT BUDGET TALKS

FRANCE SOCIALISTS THREATEN MY POLYMARKET ACCOUNT

The important piece of information of today: [link removed]

The obvious thing that was always going to happen is in fact, happening: nobody is happy with how budget discussions are going. This morning, Olivier Faure (Parti Socialiste president) has issued the following ultimatum: "If there aren't serious changes by next Monday, this government is over." (BFMTV). He is requesting here fiscal measures against wealthy people. Now of course, how much all of this is bluff? Does it really make sense for the Parti Socialiste to vote a "motion de censure" now compared to 10 days ago? Hard to say.

I was sure it would be the case around November - Early December. The hardest part here is clearly the timing

Personnally I'm really not sure about how everything will pan out. I've bought a few shares this morning because this market is likely a bit underpriced at the moment. On one side, it does feel a bit too late for the parties involved in this hot mess to pull the plug on their attempt to vote a budget and just accept the necessity of new elections. But at the same time, the scenario where a budget that more or less satisfies every party is voted simply doesn't exist. We should keep in mind that the French Senate will get involved at some point, and as a consequence, the senators will partially ruin all the ongoing negociation efforts taking place in the National assembly. Maybe the Parti Socialiste is realising that its gamble is just too hasardous, and has decided to call it off before it's really too late. I don't know.

Negociations started. That's all.

And this market allows you to bet on the fact that the negotiations might fail or that the PS might not be willing to negotiate anymore.

Yes. That's right. Nobody seems to worried at this stage though. They are just starting. It's a bit early to say things don't work. In a few weeks maybe.

A kind of a "panic" meeting between different parties representatives was organized today as a result though. I think there is a chance that the PS has realized that, in one way or another, they will end up getting cornered into accepting a bunch of things that they are not ready to take responsability for. Regardless, we will get answers fairly quickly about whether or not it was just a bit of pressure as part of negotiations or a real change of strategy.

Lecornu is safe for a couple of weeks. They will look closely at the budget now.

Buy more Yes!!

They will fall before the end of the year and will not for the budget, this budget is highly antisocial and unpopular

Impressive analysis, buy more!

Rretard you will see

Every French knows that, classic American fggot regard brain

Not today

yeah, but still 2 weeks to go. this government is extremely fragile and unstable

GG

btw there are 2 motions of censure that will be voted, not one

Left don't vote the RN one so only the first one could pass

A government censorship (editor's note: the fall of the Lecornu government) that will be decided by just a few votes this morning (9 AM, Paris UTC +2).

Lecornu had an agreement with the socialists to suspend the pension reform in exchange to them not censoring him, but he just said in a lowkey meeting that he wont actually suspend it

They will fall.

12 DEPUTES POUR FAIRE TOMBER CE GOUVERNEMENT ET L'AVENIR DE LA FRANCE, ON Y CROIT LES GARS

Sebastien Lecornu annonce que la suspension de la reforme des retraites se fera pas amendement.

Retailleau and Haddad are coming back to what LR said yesterday and want to vote for the censure

Aujourd'hui c'est mercredi, c'est le jour ou l'on change de gouvernement.

ALLEZ LES FRONDEURS, VOUS ETES GRANDS, VOUS ETES BEAUX, VOUS ALLEZ FAIRE TOMBER CE GOUVERNEMENT

malheureusement Olivier Faure est une grosse salope, tt ca pour qu'ils censurent en decembre zzzz

The president of the UDR has called on the president of the LR for a meeting to overthrow the government. Some LR and PS deputies want to support a censure motion even though their parties say they won’t. The motions will be examined on Thursday you never know.

He has a budget that wants to double the drug deductible... be careful, he may be censored.