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July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Science Vol. $41,574 50 traders

1.20–1.24ºC84%
1.25–1.29ºC12%
<1.10ºC1%
1.15–1.19ºC3%
$41,574 Vol. Science

Outcomes

6
Chance
<1.10ºC
<1% ▲ 1
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
3% ▼ 1
1.20–1.24ºC
84% ▲ 6
1.25–1.29ºC
12% ▼ 6
>1.29ºC
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $9.99 3h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $9.99 3h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $19.50 3h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $9.75 3h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $47.30 3h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $8.80 3h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $8.80 3h ago
  • 0xcfff…673d BUY No $9.98 3h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $1.68 3h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $29.97 3h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $29.97 3h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $39.00 3h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $29.25 3h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $93.50 3h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $8.70 3h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $26.10 3h ago
  • 0xcfff…673d BUY No $29.94 3h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $9.99 3h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $9.99 3h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $9.75 3h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $8.50 3h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $8.70 3h ago
  • 0xcfff…673d BUY No $9.98 3h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $9.95 3h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $9.99 3h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $9.75 3h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $8.50 3h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $8.70 3h ago
  • 0xcfff…673d BUY No $9.98 3h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $47.21 3h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $3.27 4h ago
  • 0xa846…1a8b BUY No $1.00 4h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $39.35 4h ago
  • 0x2141…7fa2 SELL Yes $3.20 6h ago
  • 0x19b8…0c6c BUY Yes $1.00 9h ago
  • 0x19b8…0c6c BUY Yes $1.00 9h ago
  • 0xa846…1a8b SELL No $0.50 10h ago
  • 0xa846…1a8b BUY No $1.00 11h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $16.20 17h ago
  • 0x2a2b…4b88 SELL Yes $1.84 18h ago

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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