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Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran Vol. $5,999,186 119 traders

July 150%
July 3135%
August 3151%
July 244%
$5,999,186 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

8
Chance
June 30 Resolved
0%
July 15 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 31
35% ▼ 6
August 31
50% ▼ 10
July 21 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 24
4% ▼ 8
August 15
42% ▼ 12
July 27
14% ▼ 21

Recent trades

40
  • 0x1de7…2db5 BUY No $10.00 15s ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $35.17 2m ago
  • 0x7bc1…8db4 BUY Yes $596.75 2m ago
  • 0xbe53…2dba BUY No $9.58 14m ago
  • 0xf0fa…efb0 BUY No $2.46 15m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $12.50 15m ago
  • 0x2af1…6b27 SELL Yes $18.62 15m ago
  • 0xa5cb…6cb5 BUY No $3.28 26m ago
  • 0xa5cb…6cb5 BUY No $1.26 26m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $328.50 26m ago
  • 0xb1aa…16cf SELL No $322.11 26m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $16.27 30m ago
  • 0xca23…f403 BUY No $13.20 31m ago
  • 0x0e2c…9294 BUY No $13.20 31m ago
  • 0x018a…9522 SELL No $9.80 31m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $5.00 31m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $30.00 31m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $3.97 32m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $4.99 32m ago
  • 0x2200…0f2d BUY Yes $104.65 32m ago
  • 0x6319…789d BUY No $3.89 32m ago
  • 0x2200…0f2d BUY Yes $673.10 32m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $13.26 32m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $15.30 32m ago
  • 0x018a…9522 SELL Yes $6.15 32m ago
  • 0xcf27…f35f BUY No $12.00 32m ago
  • 0x2721…cf8a BUY No $5.79 33m ago
  • 0x018a…9522 SELL Yes $9.60 33m ago
  • 0xb51b…b4d9 BUY No $100.00 33m ago
  • 0x5c0a…a2c3 SELL Yes $22.05 33m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $5.11 33m ago
  • 0x018a…9522 SELL Yes $4.99 33m ago
  • 0xb51b…b4d9 BUY No $100.00 33m ago
  • 0x2721…cf8a BUY No $9.63 34m ago
  • 0x3e49…bb04 BUY No $4.79 37m ago
  • 0x1ff0…0a65 SELL No $32.73 40m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $105.52 40m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $26.16 40m ago
  • 0xf0c1…bb30 BUY No $8.00 45m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $88.87 45m ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

SunFiyre 39m ago

Propose no.

pink.impala 32m ago

dont play dumb

SunFiyre 22m ago

wdym?

pink.impala 15m ago

i told you to stop..

SunFiyre 10m ago

sorry, i dont listen to red profiles. haha

SunFiyre 9m ago

even if im 1 dollar up.

pink.impala 7m ago

i was -6k not long ago, this is nothing

pink.impala 7m ago

soon enough im gonna be in the profit again!

SunFiyre 6m ago

good for you bro, i dont have much funds to showoff anyways, its my all in this current market.

Mikelious 1h ago

"Trump: Rubio, Vance talking with Iran"

Mikelious 5h ago

"PM Netanyahu will travel to Washington on Monday at President Donald Trump’s invitation. He is set to meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday and attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham." Nothing burgers don't lose your money kids.

Anieexoxo 5h ago

Airspace restrictions are as much about signaling as they are about aviation. That's what I'm watching

NOIZYUV 6h ago

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says Iran will not accept a temporary ceasefire, and this matter will not be raised unless Tehran's demands regarding the Strait are met, Sky News Arabia reports

NOIZYUV 7h ago

Iran fires missiles at Kuwait

NOIZYUV 9h ago

Explosion heard in Saudi Arabia

abdoohl 9h ago

Now, after losing the Kurdish destabilization card, they may ask their proxies nurtured in Pakistan to attack the Iranian borders in the coming days. They may also utilize tactical nuclear weapons against mountain areas under the pretext of dismantling nuclear enrichment sites buried underground

NOIZYUV 11h ago

Good luck to Israel and the US against the terror regime. ☪️ will never win

abdoohl 10h ago

Prepare to lose your money!

NOIZYUV 10h ago

I didn't put much I know it's too risky

abdoohl 9h ago

i meant in general

NOIZYUV 9h ago

Maybe, it's just a hobby, I don't really need that money.

abdoohl 21h ago

NEW: U.S. strikes in Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, Andimeshk, etc.

Shay1 22h ago

Guys this Saturday attack trust trust if not then I meant next Saturday

12beduins 22h ago

BREAKING: Something was shot down above Qeshm, Iran Some are speculating it may be an American fighter jet.

NOIZYUV Jul 23

Iran fires missiles and drones at Kuwait. Will the Kuwaiti cowards ever retaliate?

pink.impala Jul 23

Its over for Kuwait they shoudnt allowed terrorist bases on their soil!

NOIZYUV Jul 23

Massive explosion in Kuwait

Shay1 Jul 23

38C for what btw tf

abdoohl Jul 23

The IOF has opened public shelters across the occupied territories, as there are reportedly high chances of an Israeli aggression against Iran within the coming hours and over the next two days. Sensitive hours begin now.

NOIZYUV Jul 23

🤣🤣🤣

Steve-Haines Jul 23

Yes price has been completely detached from reality. Trump can open the literal gates of hell and they wont close the full FIR. 15% chance tops till July 31 for a Mossad joker.

GollumGekko Jul 23

lets hope - we get mayor escalation for sure but they already closed a bunch in the south and west so idk why they would close the east

NOIZYUV Jul 23

If 100-200 jets attack all at once, they will fully close

nellojello Jul 24

attack what exactly, they are running low on worthwhile targets.

Latt Jul 23

Explosion Heard in the Kenarak County Area -reports in Iran

NOIZYUV Jul 23

Marco Rubio: "Iran is not ready to sign an agreement – ​​and will pay a heavy price."

Latt Jul 23

12:45 AM - U.S. USED A B-1 LONG-RANGE BOMBER TO STRIKE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (IRGC) TARGETS IN IRAN ON TUESDAY, MARKING THE FIRST B-1 MISSION SINCE FIGHTING RESUMED 12 DAYS AGO.

NOIZYUV Jul 23

Explosions heard in Qatar and Jordan

Latt Jul 23

- The US struck Eslamabad-e Gharb in western Iran early Thursday - ISNA

NOIZYUV Jul 23

B1 bombers attacked in Iran

Shay1 Jul 23

Hey guys something new happened or as usual?

abdoohl Jul 22

There are many children who will never be found because they were vaporized. This means that Minab will never return to normal. Yet we know that, with time, parts of our society may normalize relations with those responsible for such killings and may once again accept or even trust their future claims of defending human rights.

NOIZYUV Jul 22

Yep, what ☪️ is doing is terrible. A religion in crisis

abdoohl Jul 23

recently you somwhat admitted it was bad that j*w settlers kill goats with poison, that was step in right direction i was proud of you

abdoohl Jul 23

now your back in your old ways, total moral decline and descent into n*zism, im sorry

NOIZYUV Jul 23

I still think the same, some settlers are terrible, but they are a minority unlike you guys.

abdoohl Jul 23

what happened to you man, youve become reasonable all of a sudden..

Pitchforkk Jul 22

Six seven

NOIZYUV Jul 22

Iran Top Negotiator Ghalibaf says "In a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil...Strait will not return to the way it was before the war."

NOIZYUV Jul 22

Iran fires missiles at Jordan. Why are all Arab countries cowards?

Shay1 Jul 22

Because they afraid to be the next Israel to be attacked to attack the shit out of their enemies and all the world turn on them somehow🤣

SIMOMEGA Jul 23

dont disrespect missiles like that

Latt Jul 23

bc they are all on the same side at the end of the day.

Shay1 Jul 22

Smoothing big going to happened… the war back X3 way bigger by the end of the week… Israel and things I can’t say because I don’t want to be arrested and my friends to be dropped of the army.

velto92 Jul 22

לך לישון ילד

velto92 Jul 22

זה הימור אתה לא יודע שום דבר

Shay1 Jul 22

חחחחחח… ילד? אני לא אגיד מאיפה אני יודע וזה בחיים לא סתם הימור… בטח לא פה שתגדל תבין

Shay1 Jul 22

יש יותר מדי הוכחות בשטח וצירופי מקרים שקורים רק לפני א,ב,ג אבל אתה ילד אתה לא תבין אין לך מושג או ידע במזרח התיכון פועולות של מנהיגים ודיבורים ואיך לפענח מה עומד לקרות… חחחחחחחח עזוב אתה ילד עשיתי פה מעל 4 אלף דולר מכך ששמתי 70 לפני כמה חודשים ומאז שיחקתי על רווח והפסדתי לכיף ב5 דקות ביטקוין כי היה לי משעמם בלילה ובשוק אחד שהיה מכור בגלל שחקנים ספציפיים שלא אגיד את שמם שברגע שהם נגדך הפסדת לא משנה אם ניצחת על פי החוקים.

SIMOMEGA Jul 23

VP-Ns exist yk?

Shay1 Jul 23

Mossed exist yk?