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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

SpaceX Vol. $488,493 50 traders

7-811%
5-657%
<529%
9-103%
$488,493 Vol. SpaceX

Outcomes

8
Chance
<5
29% ▲ 1
5-6
57%
7-8
12%
9-10
3%
11-12
2% ▼ 1
13-14
<1% ▼ 1
15-16
<1%
>16
2%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x51de…9e4a BUY Yes $3.00 4h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $6.37 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $6.43 19h ago
  • 0x052e…a23f BUY Yes $2.00 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $2.77 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $5.85 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $6.29 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $3.15 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $3.19 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $3.22 19h ago
  • 0x052e…a23f BUY Yes $1.00 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $1.39 19h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $2.93 19h ago
  • 0x3e56…35d5 BUY Yes $1.00 19h ago
  • 0x052e…a23f BUY Yes $5.00 20h ago
  • 0x0c38…291f SELL Yes $3.48 Jul 23
  • 0xec41…8b9e SELL No $36.59 Jul 23
  • 0x510f…a43c SELL No $14.60 Jul 23
  • 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL No $12.00 Jul 23
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $58.00 Jul 22
  • 0x5341…92d6 SELL No $14.00 Jul 22
  • 0x3e56…35d5 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $46.40 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $52.20 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $8.70 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $17.40 Jul 22
  • 0xc320…3d45 BUY Yes $16.82 Jul 21
  • 0xca09…eee5 SELL No $7.73 Jul 21
  • 0xc320…3d45 BUY Yes $30.71 Jul 21
  • 0xc320…3d45 BUY Yes $1.05 Jul 21
  • 0xf0f5…72bc BUY No $1.80 Jul 21
  • 0xec41…8b9e BUY No $37.02 Jul 21
  • 0x0314…2f6d SELL Yes $1.19 Jul 20
  • 0x2f7b…a660 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 20
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY Yes $1.30 Jul 20
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $58.00 Jul 20
  • 0xbd65…304f SELL No $14.70 Jul 20
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $8.55 Jul 20
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $37.63 Jul 19
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $8.90 Jul 19

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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