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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Fed Vol. $54,703 50 traders

0 (0 bps)29%
1 (25 bps)30%
2 (50 bps)34%
3 (75 bps)9%
$54,703 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

6
Chance
0 (0 bps)
29% ▲ 3
1 (25 bps)
31% ▲ 3
2 (50 bps)
34% ▼ 2
3 (75 bps)
9% ▼ 4
4 (100 bps)
2%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xa667…ceb3 BUY Yes $1.11 8m ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $12.74 8m ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $10.22 8m ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $9.80 8m ago
  • 0xa667…ceb3 BUY Yes $4.76 8m ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $13.80 8m ago
  • 0x7c3a…dfcf BUY No $9.24 5h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $1.02 6h ago
  • 0x6f67…102c SELL Yes $1.05 6h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $7.73 6h ago
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $5.76 6h ago
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $5.20 6h ago
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $7.91 6h ago
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $5.68 6h ago
  • 0x8c10…d7b3 BUY Yes $11.60 6h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $28.60 6h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $26.00 6h ago
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $7.28 6h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $36.39 6h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $39.48 6h ago
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $7.99 6h ago
  • 0xcfff…673d BUY No $39.96 6h ago
  • 0xca17…c46a BUY Yes $6.27 6h ago
  • 0x2a8b…4484 BUY Yes $3.00 7h ago
  • 0x2a8b…4484 BUY Yes $2.00 7h ago
  • 0x2a8b…4484 BUY Yes $2.00 7h ago
  • 0xd10a…b9cd SELL Yes $1.75 8h ago
  • 0x4cdc…0116 SELL No $57.95 11h ago
  • 0x8c10…d7b3 BUY Yes $6.14 12h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $36.30 12h ago
  • 0x8c10…d7b3 BUY Yes $44.39 12h ago
  • 0x48c4…19e5 BUY No $15.00 14h ago
  • 0x9797…2532 SELL Yes $0.03 16h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $14.58 Jul 24
  • 0x2132…7657 SELL Yes $52.59 Jul 24
  • 0x4ffe…9f71 SELL Yes $3.51 Jul 23
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $13.41 Jul 23
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $1.87 Jul 23
  • 0xe347…b438 BUY No $14.40 Jul 23
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.73 Jul 23

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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