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Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Fed Vol. $524,631 50 traders

Other71%
Pause–Pause–Pause27%
Pause–Pause–Cut1%
Pause–Cut–Pause1%
$524,631 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

9
Chance
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
27% ▲ 3
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
71% ▼ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $7.44 Jul 23
  • 0x4f1d…8de2 BUY No $24.90 Jul 22
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.97 Jul 22
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $19.98 Jul 22
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.97 Jul 22
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.97 Jul 22
  • 0xa2ab…6327 SELL Yes $0.12 Jul 21
  • 0x1946…6367 SELL Yes $0.01 Jul 21
  • 0x1946…6367 SELL Yes $0.01 Jul 21
  • 0x8782…456e BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0x8782…456e BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 19
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 19
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $12.38 Jul 19
  • 0x8b73…4e3a BUY Yes $20.00 Jul 19
  • 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 17
  • 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 17
  • 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 17
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.21 Jul 16
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.17 Jul 16
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.15 Jul 15
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.45 Jul 14
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.40 Jul 14
  • 0x5c84…b3a9 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 14
  • 0x5c84…b3a9 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 14
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.10 Jul 13
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.10 Jul 13
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.10 Jul 13
  • 0x597f…702c BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 8
  • 0x597f…702c BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 8
  • 0x46f7…0f92 SELL No $1.50 Jul 7
  • 0xfbd8…4027 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 7
  • 0xfbd8…4027 SELL Yes $0.11 Jul 7
  • 0x261d…4918 BUY No $1.84 Jul 7
  • 0x3d7d…10fc SELL Yes $0.42 Jul 7
  • 0x2b59…9db6 SELL Yes $0.04 Jul 7
  • 0x2b59…9db6 SELL Yes $0.01 Jul 7
  • 0x2b59…9db6 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 7
  • 0x4c2a…5a26 SELL Yes $0.08 Jul 7
  • 0xc024…27cc BUY Yes $4.75 Jul 7

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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