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Fed Decision in October?

Fed Vol. $328,856 50 traders

50+ bps decrease2%
25 bps decrease10%
25 bps increase32%
No change54%
$328,856 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
10%
No change
54%
25 bps increase
32%
50+ bps increase
1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x5260…fd71 SELL Yes $46.50 46m ago
  • 0xc602…7fc1 SELL No $401.95 2h ago
  • 0xc602…7fc1 SELL No $18.20 4h ago
  • 0x5588…2a46 SELL Yes $107.66 5h ago
  • 0xf24f…80e3 SELL Yes $4.34 6h ago
  • 0xb687…aee5 SELL Yes $119.47 6h ago
  • 0x2a8b…4484 BUY Yes $2.00 7h ago
  • 0x2a8b…4484 BUY Yes $3.00 7h ago
  • 0x2a8b…4484 BUY Yes $4.00 7h ago
  • 0xe478…d42c BUY Yes $2.23 8h ago
  • 0x6b37…0d27 BUY No $68.46 8h ago
  • 0x5c50…44fa BUY Yes $5.00 10h ago
  • 0x5c50…44fa BUY Yes $1.00 10h ago
  • 0x3cd2…c545 SELL Yes $21.34 12h ago
  • 0xb990…1d6a BUY Yes $100.00 12h ago
  • 0x48c4…19e5 BUY Yes $1.00 14h ago
  • 0x2df5…51ac BUY No $15.51 18h ago
  • 0x92c0…9823 SELL No $0.97 20h ago
  • 0x2aae…a80c BUY No $5.52 20h ago
  • 0x941b…e827 SELL Yes $4.00 20h ago
  • 0x6bb8…1115 BUY No $627.21 20h ago
  • 0xa667…ceb3 BUY Yes $2.70 23h ago
  • 0xc1df…af33 BUY Yes $100.00 Jul 23
  • 0xca75…0a64 SELL Yes $26.50 Jul 23
  • 0x7fc6…7306 BUY Yes $14.00 Jul 23
  • 0x885b…3e82 BUY Yes $25.06 Jul 23
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $27.56 Jul 23
  • 0xb687…aee5 SELL Yes $408.05 Jul 23
  • 0x0551…b427 BUY Yes $3.50 Jul 23
  • 0x0e09…05bb BUY No $50.00 Jul 23
  • 0x2807…4e85 SELL No $22.00 Jul 23
  • 0x2807…4e85 SELL No $22.00 Jul 23
  • 0xe134…b4a7 BUY No $23.00 Jul 23
  • 0x93fb…b608 SELL Yes $27.50 Jul 23
  • 0x8031…c84c BUY No $12.31 Jul 23
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL No $172.49 Jul 23
  • 0x92c0…9823 BUY No $1.00 Jul 23
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $44.99 Jul 23
  • 0xc798…6254 SELL No $45.00 Jul 23
  • 0xd219…0412 SELL No $45.00 Jul 23

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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