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Fed Decision in July?

Economic Policy Vol. $90,913,844 1818 traders

No change74%
25 bps increase25%
50+ bps increase1%
25 bps decrease0%
$90,913,844 Vol. Economic Policy

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x37e1…3d42 SELL Yes $9.65 47s ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 SELL No $1.89 1m ago
  • 0xd5d6…bcd5 BUY Yes $15.00 1m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 BUY No $28.50 1m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 SELL No $3.95 2m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 BUY No $28.50 2m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 BUY No $28.50 3m ago
  • 0x0c95…10f5 BUY Yes $1031.80 3m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 SELL No $1.89 3m ago
  • 0xa3af…b7a6 BUY No $4.97 3m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 BUY No $28.50 4m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 SELL No $26.30 5m ago
  • 0xb117…92e6 SELL Yes $1.00 6m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 SELL No $215.67 6m ago
  • 0x8ce1…7f26 SELL No $10.22 6m ago
  • 0xbdcb…e811 SELL No $366.03 8m ago
  • 0xbe89…b88c SELL Yes $1791.56 8m ago
  • 0xd5d6…bcd5 SELL Yes $14.96 9m ago
  • 0x29f9…580c SELL Yes $0.98 9m ago
  • 0x94bb…2e04 BUY Yes $16.95 10m ago
  • 0xa3af…b7a6 BUY Yes $14.00 10m ago
  • 0xe85e…fd9f SELL Yes $7.35 11m ago
  • 0xe85e…fd9f SELL Yes $0.75 12m ago
  • 0x9e3e…f882 BUY Yes $31.42 13m ago
  • 0xd5d6…bcd5 BUY Yes $15.00 13m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 SELL No $1.43 13m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 BUY No $20.13 14m ago
  • 0xd80d…e2af BUY Yes $2.37 14m ago
  • 0x032e…2a9e BUY Yes $6.32 14m ago
  • 0x032e…2a9e BUY Yes $6.25 14m ago
  • 0x032e…2a9e BUY Yes $226.74 14m ago
  • 0x9d77…cf31 SELL No $4.47 16m ago
  • 0xb834…57c2 BUY Yes $1.24 16m ago
  • 0xfbfd…0029 BUY Yes $491.73 16m ago
  • 0x9d77…cf31 SELL No $4.51 17m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 BUY No $1.18 19m ago
  • 0xb687…aee5 SELL Yes $260.47 21m ago
  • 0xf738…cbdf SELL No $3.75 22m ago
  • 0xf10c…3fd8 SELL Yes $10.44 23m ago
  • 0xb687…aee5 SELL Yes $3.00 24m ago

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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