European military action against Iran by...?
Outcomes
2Recent trades
40- 0xd06f…7bfe SELL Yes $10.01 11m ago
- 0xa667…ceb3 SELL No $3.49 11m ago
- 0xe85e…fd9f SELL No $9.62 57m ago
- 0xe85e…fd9f SELL No $4.50 58m ago
- 0x1086…27d2 BUY Yes $1.65 1h ago
- 0xfbda…fdbb BUY No $110.00 1h ago
- 0xad52…11ac SELL Yes $12.38 2h ago
- 0xcbcf…ba89 SELL Yes $50.15 2h ago
- 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $10.00 3h ago
- 0xd8d5…8935 BUY No $222.50 3h ago
- 0x8231…cbc0 BUY Yes $2.00 4h ago
- 0x7761…f504 BUY No $2.67 5h ago
- 0xd67b…5780 BUY Yes $24.60 5h ago
- 0x3387…c3f7 BUY No $2.01 5h ago
- 0xd67b…5780 BUY Yes $238.18 5h ago
- 0xd06f…7bfe SELL Yes $8.01 6h ago
- 0xd06f…7bfe BUY Yes $7.00 6h ago
- 0xd06f…7bfe BUY Yes $2.21 6h ago
- 0xd06f…7bfe BUY Yes $5.58 6h ago
- 0xd06f…7bfe BUY Yes $3.42 6h ago
- 0x4ffe…9f71 SELL Yes $0.28 7h ago
- 0x839f…d3f5 BUY No $1.00 7h ago
- 0xf42f…a6a7 BUY No $455.00 7h ago
- 0xa86f…022c SELL No $9.99 8h ago
- 0x7c07…af36 BUY No $1500.00 10h ago
- 0xaf85…86e1 BUY Yes $11.46 10h ago
- 0xf562…4099 BUY No $364.00 11h ago
- 0x1e44…e0d4 BUY No $31.33 12h ago
- 0xb944…fa89 BUY No $15.11 12h ago
- 0xa4f6…77d4 BUY No $13.11 12h ago
- 0x2e6d…6780 BUY Yes $2.01 12h ago
- 0xbdd2…2c87 BUY No $1.09 12h ago
- 0xd113…862e BUY Yes $5.66 12h ago
- 0x7575…c9c1 BUY No $51.13 12h ago
- 0x8fa0…c8ce BUY No $31.19 12h ago
- 0xd3b3…5d04 BUY Yes $6.85 12h ago
- 0x1bca…5692 BUY Yes $2.85 12h ago
- 0x4d9d…53e8 BUY No $3.62 12h ago
- 0xdeec…a386 BUY No $49.65 12h ago
- 0x4596…01a2 BUY Yes $2.76 12h ago
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.
Comments
Andorra, Liechtenstein, and Vatican City are included in the rules despite none of them having any military or even being associated with NATO lmao
The Vatican has Jesus + his army of 12 disciples ... they will basically overrun Iran peacefully
thanks for the fill... I guess
LOL.. never
Yopp