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ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

ECB Vol. $139,862 50 traders

25 bps increase79%
No change14%
50+ bps increase2%
25 bps decrease1%
$139,862 Vol. ECB

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
14% ▼ 1
25 bps increase
79% ▼ 5
50+ bps increase
2%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xa667…ceb3 SELL No $7.22 6m ago
  • 0xe503…5260 BUY Yes $7.00 2h ago
  • 0xb904…00dd BUY No $1.00 6h ago
  • 0xbefa…7e11 BUY Yes $10.00 6h ago
  • 0xbefa…7e11 SELL Yes $5.97 6h ago
  • 0xed7e…2fe2 SELL No $35.75 9h ago
  • 0xed7e…2fe2 SELL No $11.50 9h ago
  • 0x3c69…c149 SELL Yes $7.95 9h ago
  • 0x9b61…dc5d SELL Yes $0.89 10h ago
  • 0x0ef9…8f58 BUY No $24.90 12h ago
  • 0xf18c…18c1 SELL Yes $77.00 12h ago
  • 0x0f99…6734 SELL Yes $123.20 12h ago
  • 0x0f99…6734 SELL Yes $31.60 12h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $39.80 12h ago
  • 0x39c3…0c7e SELL Yes $916.53 12h ago
  • 0x52a4…ebc1 BUY Yes $50.00 15h ago
  • 0x5e2f…55ca SELL Yes $167.98 22h ago
  • 0x82cd…d7d8 SELL No $1.95 22h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $0.80 Jul 23
  • 0xe5dc…1fe6 SELL No $11.20 Jul 23
  • 0xc03f…249d SELL No $5.70 Jul 23
  • 0x0f99…6734 SELL No $3.44 Jul 23
  • 0x1e25…0f29 BUY Yes $140.00 Jul 23
  • 0xefdd…8370 SELL Yes $74.72 Jul 23
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $15.97 Jul 23
  • 0xe6f0…a50c BUY Yes $9.58 Jul 23
  • 0x99fe…5705 BUY No $4.84 Jul 23
  • 0xefdd…8370 BUY Yes $19.50 Jul 23
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $6.50 Jul 23
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $13.73 Jul 23
  • 0xf18c…18c1 SELL Yes $9.11 Jul 23
  • 0xf864…7fb5 SELL Yes $7.55 Jul 23
  • 0xefdd…8370 SELL Yes $151.82 Jul 23
  • 0xdf0e…c02b SELL Yes $0.83 Jul 23
  • 0xe6f0…a50c BUY Yes $4.00 Jul 23
  • 0x5e2f…55ca BUY Yes $160.00 Jul 23
  • 0xefdd…8370 SELL Yes $0.05 Jul 23
  • 0xefdd…8370 SELL Yes $41.76 Jul 23
  • 0xa328…4977 SELL Yes $0.03 Jul 23
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $4.05 Jul 23

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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