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Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

UK Vol. $61,807 50 traders

Farage 60%+35%
Farage 20-40%14%
Farage 40-60%34%
Farage <20%10%
$61,807 Vol. UK

Outcomes

6
Chance
Farage 60%+
35% ▲ 1
Farage 40-60%
34%
Farage 20-40%
14% ▼ 5
Farage <20%
9% ▼ 1
Count Binface
4% ▼ 1
Other
3%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x7709…ee57 BUY Yes $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x50f4…04d4 SELL No $13.12 5h ago
  • 0x0d93…8cbe BUY Yes $7.26 5h ago
  • 0x0d93…8cbe BUY Yes $8.02 5h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $21.39 20h ago
  • 0xf524…8178 BUY Yes $1.25 20h ago
  • 0x40cf…d21d BUY No $1302.82 20h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL No $24.06 Jul 24
  • 0x3089…92f6 SELL No $69.39 Jul 24
  • 0x5c0a…a2c3 SELL Yes $15.39 Jul 23
  • 0x738a…5996 SELL No $38.40 Jul 23
  • 0x7e26…915c SELL No $3.84 Jul 23
  • 0x13c7…18e8 BUY Yes $1.58 Jul 23
  • 0x13c7…18e8 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 23
  • 0x7495…7fcf SELL Yes $0.72 Jul 23
  • 0xca1f…d282 BUY No $16.00 Jul 23
  • 0xc6fa…51e5 BUY No $3.35 Jul 23
  • 0xc6fa…51e5 BUY No $3.35 Jul 23
  • 0xc6fa…51e5 BUY No $4.62 Jul 23
  • 0xc6fa…51e5 BUY No $4.00 Jul 23
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $3.35 Jul 23
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $4.00 Jul 23
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $4.64 Jul 23
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $4.82 Jul 23
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $4.87 Jul 23
  • 0x13c7…18e8 BUY Yes $19.74 Jul 23
  • 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $6.40 Jul 23
  • 0x5c0a…a2c3 SELL Yes $10.80 Jul 23
  • 0x9951…72ff BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 23
  • 0x5005…7f15 BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 23
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $3.38 Jul 23
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $3.91 Jul 23
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.76 Jul 23
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.79 Jul 23
  • 0x2702…7cb4 BUY Yes $1.65 Jul 23
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.67 Jul 23
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $0.74 Jul 23
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $0.74 Jul 23
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $0.86 Jul 23
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $1.03 Jul 23

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Comments

0xqx Jul 11

Count Binface