Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

tight

How is Dems sweep not higher when two of the best pollsters have them up 8-13 pts?

yeah like the pollsters were good in 2024 lmao

Comparing a Trump presidential election to a midterm is hilarious. Check out RCP state polls for 2022.

Trump speech

BREAKING: Mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in hostilities between the US and ISIS-like Iran to revive their fragile interim peace agreement. Negotiation with ISIS-like Iran might be successful!

fuck you all dump shits..

Trump speech was a nothing burger. Voter fraud! zzz he barely discussed Iran

1

hi

Markets price divided Congress as the most probable power balance post-2026 midterm elections.

Recency bias is a key element why the vote is split now but won't be in the future

Macro events happening way close in Nov have more impact than early 2026

The 2026 midterms could split congressional power, limiting the president’s policy agenda.

force

Interesting market this

i think volume must be higher here

wassup

Will be a Rep-Sweep. Dems could only win the senate if winning all toss ups plus one Rep stronghold (f.e. Alaska). Not gonna happen. The House was in play, but with the Supreme Court ruling race-based districts unconstitutional, Reps will swap plenty of Dem sets by drawing new maps. They already did in Florida, Lousiana, Alabama, Utah, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas, and North Carolina (approx. 15-seat-shift in favor of Reps). More states to follow. In addition, Supreme Court will decide weither ballots received after election day will be eligible to count in late June/early July. Tendency is that they're not. This will bring Dem mail-in-ballot-strategies to a halt.

This guy has never heard of a dummy dummymander I can tell

Oh tell me, when did that happen the last time? And how have voting behavior prediction and mapdrawing evolved since?

wishful thinking

Decent chance the R's sweep. They will hold the Senate and the House is a toss up. The certainly have a better chance than 15cents to the dollar.

Damm sweep roaring up

when this market is over

Quién ganará??

👽

Yeah...

Why would Dem sweep drop when they are winning Ohio by 8 pts?

Because they're not, you're watching partisan polls

But Fabrizio is accurate lol

One of the polls is off. There are polls with Brown up big but the governor race is a dead heat.

Okok

Why is the market end date November 3? Isn't it entirely possible the result won't be fully determined by midnight?

End dates are fake numbers only used for search indexing, rules dropdown is what counts

Republicans will control the senat seat because of voter id.. democrate have no id which mean the republican voter can go to democrate area to vote republican. Democrate cant go to Republicans seat because the voter id.. democrate was build on house of card. It will collapse

Dumbest comment I've ever read

Yes it is dumb thats why the democrat can retain their seat for 30years plus just by arranging the voter goes to other states and have the bad policy and still win..

If the democrat can use this tactics to win why the republican cant use it.. plus if the republican win they can imposed the voter id and democrat will never win again unless they give the best policy backnto the people back.

most literate conservative

New - Senate poll - Texas 🔵 Talarico 45% 🔴 Paxton 38% PPP #B (🔵) - LV - 5/26 MAGA is donezo and Trump is historically unpopular. Dems flip both houses and Trump becomes lame duck president. It's over.

bet MONEY!!!!! come on man...

Thượng viện D, Hạ viện R

jlj

jlj

how one can think it will be anything but a GOP sweep.... surprises me. Is polymarket full of democrats?

I see you chose to advertise your mental retardation publicly. Trump is universally hated. Look at his approvals and combine that with the fact that the party in power loses seats in the midterms and then see a head doctor.

At it's current price, Republican sweep is a good value.

BET or SHUT UP.

There are five possible scenarios. Trump and Co figures out how to cancel elections Trump and Co rigs elections to insure republicans win Trump and Co decide they won't allow elections results to be certified Elections are allowed to happen and Republicans actually win Elections happen, results are close enough that some races get dragged into court for weeks or months, some certifications get delayed, some seats get challenged when Congress convenes in January 2027

yes ,i am yes

How can "Other" be obtained? Republicans do something for elections not to happen?

Third party takes hold of house or senate

yea, it's basically a bet on the elections not being able to be finished properly

That's my bet... I don't trust the Administration...

"This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections." Best bet? Elections cancelled/invalidated. There being a less than a 1% chance of Trump sending ICE to the ballots to stop the count because "it's rigged" is severely underrated, in my opinion. I expect the "Other" to rise in value nearing the due date (Nov 3), as Trump does what he always does lol.

i trust the cat in business

yep, there's like 1% chance of the elections actually being cancelled, but like 95% chance that he will try something and this goes up in value

can anyone time me plz

MIGA kicking out Massie from the party should basically lock this one up. The GOP is basically done as a party in the next two years for a generation and they have no one to blame but themselves, and I'm here for it.