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2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Science Vol. $110,420 50 traders

1st hottest93%
3rd hottest6%
2nd hottest3%
4th or lower0%
$110,420 Vol. Science

Outcomes

4
Chance
1st hottest
93% ▼ 2
2nd hottest
3% ▲ 1
3rd hottest
6% ▲ 2
4th or lower
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x9ebc…35c2 SELL Yes $33.33 3h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $27.30 4h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $27.30 4h ago
  • 0x2229…6bf8 BUY No $539.00 6h ago
  • 0x51b1…7865 BUY Yes $0.41 6h ago
  • 0x8917…a49f BUY No $4.77 7h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $12.55 7h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $204.41 7h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 BUY Yes $9.00 7h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 SELL Yes $47.00 7h ago
  • 0x2a2b…4b88 SELL No $2.30 13h ago
  • 0x2a2b…4b88 SELL Yes $2.28 13h ago
  • 0x3e49…bb04 BUY Yes $5.00 14h ago
  • 0xea56…1dda SELL Yes $0.78 15h ago
  • 0x0c18…a04c BUY Yes $5.00 17h ago
  • 0xea56…1dda SELL Yes $0.99 20h ago
  • 0xea56…1dda BUY Yes $1.00 20h ago
  • 0xea56…1dda BUY Yes $1.00 20h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $0.18 23h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $79.12 Jul 23
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $27.94 Jul 23
  • 0xcda4…1d82 BUY Yes $619.19 Jul 23
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $33.26 Jul 23
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $3.87 Jul 23
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $33.50 Jul 23
  • 0xd9a8…ec28 SELL Yes $1.76 Jul 23
  • 0x3188…9e6c SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 23
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL No $1.13 Jul 23
  • 0x1b0e…f132 BUY Yes $4.69 Jul 23
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $4.97 Jul 23
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $4.70 Jul 23
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $5.00 Jul 23
  • 0xe243…633b SELL Yes $168.36 Jul 23
  • 0xbced…84e9 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 23
  • 0x4041…6f52 SELL Yes $0.78 Jul 23
  • 0x4041…6f52 SELL Yes $15.16 Jul 23
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $4.20 Jul 23
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $59.82 Jul 23
  • 0xed94…53fc BUY Yes $5.61 Jul 23
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $59.94 Jul 23

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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