Sign Up
← Markets

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

zelenskyy Vol. $719,966 50 traders

December 31, 202610%
August 31, 20261%
$719,966 Vol. zelenskyy

Outcomes

2
Chance
August 31, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
10% ▼ 2

Recent trades

40
  • 0xab3b…59da BUY Yes $5.26 2h ago
  • 0xe72e…282d BUY No $2430.00 4h ago
  • 0x28b8…5e00 BUY Yes $2.00 4h ago
  • 0xc550…272d BUY No $1388.46 4h ago
  • 0x8947…f4b4 BUY No $494.50 8h ago
  • 0x3002…0099 BUY No $21.00 10h ago
  • 0xcd2d…5e97 SELL Yes $1.00 20h ago
  • 0x6c59…e3bb BUY No $5.00 Jul 27
  • 0x8fa0…ec6a SELL No $1.40 Jul 26
  • 0x68e5…e38e SELL No $1.31 Jul 26
  • 0xd1f8…f567 SELL No $1.37 Jul 26
  • 0x13fa…3b10 SELL No $1.37 Jul 26
  • 0x5923…49cd BUY No $10.06 Jul 26
  • 0x3a59…6c6f BUY No $104.05 Jul 26
  • 0x8374…cb09 SELL No $1.37 Jul 26
  • 0x8e7f…7489 SELL No $1.37 Jul 26
  • 0x1d72…40f5 SELL Yes $0.32 Jul 26
  • 0x28b8…5e00 BUY No $2.00 Jul 26
  • 0x5da5…e620 BUY Yes $200.00 Jul 26
  • 0xb3e8…3af7 SELL No $1.43 Jul 26
  • 0x1be1…b47b SELL No $1.43 Jul 25
  • 0xb1f6…24e5 SELL Yes $2.78 Jul 25
  • 0x79bf…bcdf SELL Yes $61.92 Jul 25
  • 0xfdfa…7fa8 BUY Yes $153.60 Jul 25
  • 0x5533…51ba SELL Yes $3.61 Jul 25
  • 0x9d77…cf31 SELL Yes $5.69 Jul 25
  • 0xf007…d2a4 BUY No $10.00 Jul 25
  • 0x3376…f840 SELL No $1.49 Jul 25
  • 0x74df…8fa4 SELL No $1.49 Jul 24
  • 0xa417…d429 SELL No $1.49 Jul 24
  • 0x197a…be93 SELL Yes $0.14 Jul 24
  • 0x0953…ca4e BUY No $9.86 Jul 24
  • 0xb04a…acfc BUY No $12.31 Jul 23
  • 0xd453…1f27 SELL No $39.97 Jul 23
  • 0x45ea…6338 SELL Yes $0.10 Jul 23
  • 0xf569…7baa BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 23
  • 0x66e5…2a0c SELL Yes $0.10 Jul 23
  • 0xd81f…fec4 SELL Yes $1.60 Jul 23
  • 0xf386…988a SELL Yes $0.30 Jul 23
  • 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 22

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Comments