Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Recent trades
25- 0xad62…0280 BUY Yes $10.00 14m ago
- 0xcc03…d5c0 SELL No $546.00 1h ago
- 0xc1a8…dab3 SELL Yes $1.33 1h ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 1h ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $5.02 2h ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 2h ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 2h ago
- 0xc754…bb99 SELL Yes $0.91 2h ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 2h ago
- 0x9d73…216b BUY No $3680.00 3h ago
- 0x5923…49cd SELL No $11.99 3h ago
- 0xab47…be54 SELL Yes $1.76 3h ago
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $8.22 3h ago
- 0x500a…c8e4 SELL Yes $77.09 3h ago
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $0.26 3h ago
- 0x6d10…a6d6 BUY No $10.00 4h ago
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $0.44 5h ago
- 0xafaa…f0e4 BUY No $16.77 5h ago
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $0.44 5h ago
- 0xafaa…f0e4 BUY No $16.77 5h ago
- 0x5eda…92a7 SELL No $864.50 5h ago
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $0.12 5h ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 5h ago
- 0xe8df…41e1 SELL No $15.47 6h ago
- 0x945e…f014 BUY Yes $9.00 6h ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Comments