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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Oil Vol. $1,534,853 50 traders

30+8%
40+100%
60+0%
40+3%
$1,534,853 Vol. Oil

Outcomes

7
Chance
60+
<1% ▼ 1
80+
1%
100+
<1%
40+ Resolved
100% ▲ 18
50+
1% ▼ 1
30+
8% ▼ 4
40+
3% ▼ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x5835…fc40 SELL No $12.37 8m ago
  • 0xe907…cff6 BUY Yes $32.71 19m ago
  • 0x3908…d10e SELL No $1.07 1h ago
  • 0x5835…fc40 BUY No $12.78 2h ago
  • 0x90f8…93c1 SELL No $322.49 2h ago
  • 0xb477…673e SELL No $85.23 4h ago
  • 0xd324…b23c SELL Yes $88.86 4h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $18.91 4h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $0.74 4h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f BUY Yes $1.00 5h ago
  • 0xee67…67a6 BUY Yes $1.90 5h ago
  • 0x7fed…9664 BUY No $19.90 5h ago
  • 0xbfe0…192a SELL No $11.00 6h ago
  • 0x4ae5…6079 SELL Yes $21.63 6h ago
  • 0xeaa9…1737 SELL Yes $11.90 6h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $13.20 6h ago
  • 0x1bf7…6f57 BUY No $10.34 6h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $15.40 6h ago
  • 0x85a8…9281 BUY No $3735.00 6h ago
  • 0x5344…7dc1 SELL Yes $0.16 6h ago
  • 0xb003…97e1 SELL Yes $15.66 7h ago
  • 0xb003…97e1 SELL Yes $0.75 7h ago
  • 0x68a9…3a55 BUY Yes $5.00 8h ago
  • 0x5730…524f BUY No $1.76 8h ago
  • 0xf9b0…a817 SELL No $497.04 8h ago
  • 0xc281…e079 BUY No $91.79 9h ago
  • 0x0aae…d826 BUY No $56.00 9h ago
  • 0xe907…faf0 BUY No $20.00 9h ago
  • 0x746b…13be SELL No $5.49 9h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.19 11h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $2.48 11h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f BUY Yes $1.00 11h ago
  • 0xd6dd…98ee BUY Yes $1.05 11h ago
  • 0xe1a3…24ea SELL Yes $22.29 11h ago
  • 0xd6dd…98ee BUY Yes $2.02 11h ago
  • 0xd6dd…98ee BUY No $126.35 11h ago
  • 0xe1a3…24ea SELL Yes $38.45 11h ago
  • 0x0457…d1b0 BUY Yes $5.00 11h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f BUY Yes $1.00 11h ago
  • 0xe1a3…24ea SELL Yes $56.10 11h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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