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Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Weather Vol. $147,349 50 traders

Yes95%
No6%
$147,349 Vol. Weather
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
95%

Recent trades

25
  • 0x4cfd…bef3 BUY Yes $310.00 Jul 27
  • 0x8d24…61b9 BUY No $1.05 Jul 27
  • 0x118a…457e SELL Yes $0.98 Jul 26
  • 0x9e72…5a40 BUY No $2.00 Jul 24
  • 0x9dc5…89a3 BUY No $3.00 Jul 24
  • 0xea56…1dda SELL Yes $0.97 Jul 24
  • 0xea56…1dda BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 24
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $72.99 Jul 22
  • 0xbd81…0f48 BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 22
  • 0x47fe…3a28 BUY No $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0x47fe…3a28 BUY No $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0x76d2…6bfc SELL No $0.30 Jul 22
  • 0xb049…9e8f SELL Yes $4.51 Jul 21
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $2.08 Jul 21
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $36.00 Jul 21
  • 0x3522…f50a BUY No $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0x7dd1…009b BUY No $0.50 Jul 21
  • 0x118a…457e BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0xb049…9e8f BUY Yes $4.70 Jul 20
  • 0xd489…7f08 BUY No $40.00 Jul 20
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $155.11 Jul 19
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $4.69 Jul 18
  • 0x00c8…9ccd SELL Yes $3.31 Jul 17
  • 0x14a7…3208 SELL No $0.68 Jul 17
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $56.03 Jul 16

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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