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Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

Tech Vol. $113,825 50 traders

#111%
#1097%
#538%
#322%
$113,825 Vol. Tech

Outcomes

4
Chance
#3
22% ▲ 1
#5
38% ▼ 6
#10
97% ▲ 4
#1
11% ▲ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x6cb1…0f6e SELL No $1.10 13m ago
  • 0xd62b…ceec SELL No $1.10 43m ago
  • 0x3908…d10e SELL No $0.98 1h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $0.96 4h ago
  • 0xf18c…18c1 SELL No $1.56 4h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $1.27 4h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $1.43 4h ago
  • 0x09e6…24a1 SELL No $9.16 4h ago
  • 0x7b12…865b SELL No $2.63 4h ago
  • 0x09e6…24a1 SELL No $58.33 4h ago
  • 0x53f8…5ce0 SELL Yes $1.64 6h ago
  • 0x6b8a…f6a4 SELL Yes $17.00 6h ago
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $2.04 8h ago
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $4.80 8h ago
  • 0x128a…28de BUY Yes $20.00 13h ago
  • 0xe8c4…ea5c SELL No $5.37 14h ago
  • 0x00cd…c0ae SELL No $3.15 14h ago
  • 0xd823…12fe SELL No $6.30 14h ago
  • 0x0bd4…582b SELL No $103.35 14h ago
  • 0xda00…61b4 SELL Yes $32.00 14h ago
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $33.00 14h ago
  • 0xda00…61b4 SELL Yes $16.00 15h ago
  • 0x7a5c…767b SELL Yes $16.50 15h ago
  • 0x3c3e…5a86 SELL Yes $16.00 15h ago
  • 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL Yes $16.36 15h ago
  • 0x9c3f…bc25 SELL Yes $0.45 16h ago
  • 0xfcf4…527f BUY Yes $24.85 18h ago
  • 0x53f8…5ce0 SELL Yes $1.25 18h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $12.25 18h ago
  • 0x2a20…89d2 SELL Yes $16.85 18h ago
  • 0x8e07…0439 SELL Yes $3.34 18h ago
  • 0x97f3…0eba BUY No $250.00 18h ago
  • 0xae91…0f69 BUY No $30.00 18h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $23.71 19h ago
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $8.80 19h ago
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $4.40 19h ago
  • 0x9595…f347 SELL Yes $4.36 20h ago
  • 0xe86c…c9e3 SELL No $50.76 20h ago
  • 0x9f60…3a16 BUY Yes $2.27 21h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $117.00 23h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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