Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

According to my calculations, LDPR will get the largest increase in seat count.

Если ЕР выиграет выборы (что почти 100%), но при этом партия NL наберёт больше парламентских мест (чем в прошлом созыве (15)), то как будет рассчитана ставка NL нет?

Ну конечно. Тут не поврос о победителе, он известен

In this case NL will win

Не понимаю почему у ЛДПР такой большой кф на Да, у них сейчас 21 мандат, им нужно хотябы 22 чтобы выиграть по ставке, неужели шансы 20к1?

only one winner here, so they need to gain more then others not 22

Тогда почему у новых людей 33%, когда у них по предварительным данным максимум 10% ЕР - 100% партия победитель, получается беспроигрышный вариант это ЕР?

nl has only 5% seats now, if they get 10% its a 5% increase. kprf have like 13% now and no way they get 18%

According to the poll by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), the current ratings for Russia's political parties are distributed as follows: * United Russia — 36% * LDPR — 9% * CPRF — 7% * New People — 4% * A Just Russia — 3%

¿Why the people are still betting for united russia? they obviously have not enough force to keep the mount. there is not any discussion about gain more

потому что ты приходишь в казино где все решает 70 летний дедушка крупье, а население имеет отрицательный интелект

Cuz they cant make United Russia results worse than after the previous election. This is a tradition. The question is whether UR(ER) got +25 seats or 400+ seats with 90%+ results to show everyone who manage the country.

Because the systemic opposition is only an opposition in name, and in reality it always sides with the ruling party. Moreover, some parties have even discredited themselves in the public sphere through various antics, careless statements, and foolish initiatives. The systemic opposition has so thoroughly discredited itself that the people no longer trust it. There was a man named Alyosha Navalny, who seemed to have some unity around him, but as soon as he died, his entourage began to quarrel over power and donations. That's why this "stability" is chosen. No one wants to work, and all the leaders who know what's best are populists!

I'm not very experience in ru politic. Do New People (NL) really have a chance?

There no real election.

Communist Party underrated i see.

They already have 10%+ seats. It is too much. As NL has grown, kommunists dont have chances. The strongest growth will be for ER and NL.

Because the Communist Party is only in name, the party is led by large owners of the means of production, which contradicts the foundations of communism. They don't want to win because then they would have to comply, promote socialist laws and initiatives, nationalize their enterprises, which is a shot in their own foot, a blow to their pocket.

I don't understand people who bet on new people. In fact, it's the same United Russia, and everyone in Russia knows this and won't vote for them. I think some Americans are betting on them, thinking that new people are something liberal.

although in any case votes don't decide anything, they'll just draw 101% for United Russia as usual, like in the last 20 years.

The vote isn't who's going to win it's who's going to gain the most seats. ER are -21 and NL are +35. ER are going to lose seats to NL which will give you the L. It's impossible for ER to gain seats in the current climate in Russia.

Why is it impossible? How Putin got 87% in 2024? What has changed in election system?

KPRF is soooo underrated

I know russian politics very well and can say for sure that 45% on United Russia "NO" is free money UR already has 324 out of 450 seats, so it is difficult for the party to make the biggest gain again. Other parties have much fewer seats, so even a small improvement can give them a bigger increase Also, VCIOM polls show that United Russia has a bad times. UR will probably remain the largest party, but it does not mean it will gain the most new deputies. I would put the probability that another party gets a bigger increase at around 65–70%

Firstly, they have 310 seats at the moment. Secondly, it's not about percentages, but about the actual gain in nominal seats

Site that mentioned in context is showing 325 seats at the moment. I know that its about nominal seats, perhaps I didn’t express my point very clearly. What I meant is that it would be quite difficult for United Russia to gain even more seats, since they already have a very comfortable majority. For parties with limited representation in duma, however, increasing their number of seats is easier, especially for the NL who are starting from a very small base and whose popularity continues to grow

Based, i would say

how popular is NL really? and even if people vote for them, how large will be the falsifications to keep them down?

In other words, will the party get more votes than last year?

So, can multiple parties say “Yes” at the same time?

Of course no

почему в условиях нет зафиксированного количества мест у партий, относительно которых будут рассчитывать изменение?

количество мест можно брать по разному, на момент результатов прошлых выборов, или по последнему факту, оно меняется, депутаты выбывали и т.д.

Прочитай доп контекст

Посмотрите насколько отличаются цифры текущей численности фракций на сайтах dumatv ru/fractions duma gov ru/duma/factions/ (310-325 ЕР, например) Почему бы не взять какие-то одни исходные цифры и не зафиксировать в условиях? Это соответствует смыслу этого рынка. В противном случае создаются условия для манипуляции.

У КПРФ какой-то бешенный коэфициент хотя шансы вполне есть

Nado brat' Halyava

Какой шанс, его нет от слова совсем

Можете объяснить, на Нове Люди ДА, сейчас выставлено кратно больше позиций чем на НЕТ, откуда возьмётся деньги если выиграет ДА?

the money is already in the system

only 1 winner in this market

если я ставлю 1000 на Новый Люди ДА, то кто то должен поставить 2400 на НЕТ, а там 90% стоит на ДА. Как так вышло? Кто будет платить?

Maybe I'd better write to you in X or other social networks

🤣

только 1 победитель. весь банк уйдет на выигрышные ставки

Pochemu Novaya Ubludia ne rastet?

Гопфан загашенный шизик 🤣

Maybe read the additional context before saying who wins, this market is not about who wins the election but who gains the most seats compared to the previous elections

fully agree, only problem maybe that different surveys show strong differen results. but it depends on the context of how/what they ask the people in detail.

Not sure about the surveys but this particular market makes most sense when you take the result from the last election and compare it with the prominent outcome, does not matter what people say or whom they ask

I would keep it quiet and take the W, lots of ESL not getting the nuances

Yes I do

There is no "Other". What's up with this option? What if the elections do not take place at all?

Right, you can see the option if you click swap, but you can’t swap it to other

Рибята я пешу с ашибками чтабы эти чебуреки не паняли и праиграли бабки. Прачитайте внимотельно уславия. ЕР или НЛ нада набрать бальше мест на виборах чем естть сийчас. А это 321 у Ер и 15 у НЛ, с учетам чта выбары были до СВО и рейтенги зночительно уполи, то тут все ни ток адназначна. Им пафиг, бальшинство ани забирут 10% для пренятия зоконов

Ну ти и гусь

В России есть только одна партия и это ЕДИНАЯ РОССИЯ. Ток они и выиграют. А остальные будут сидеть или иногентами.

Да почитай ты условия внимательно абориген

🤣

Фактически это скам, будьте острожнее. Потому что то, что написано в Additional context противоречит названию рынка. В реальности тут не про то, кто больше мест в госдуме получит, а больше или меньше мест ПО СРАВНЕНИЮ С ПРЕДЫДУЩИМ РЕЗУЛЬТАТОМ!