US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
Outcomes
5Recent trades
40- 0xe9c2…a274 BUY No $1.00 44s ago
- 0x73e9…57f2 BUY Yes $3.16 2m ago
- 0x73e9…57f2 BUY Yes $3.16 2m ago
- 0x624d…5b0e BUY Yes $1.65 3m ago
- 0xabbc…cb27 BUY No $1.41 3m ago
- 0xae25…ce60 BUY Yes $1.98 3m ago
- 0x418a…4669 SELL No $19.02 5m ago
- 0xea41…1c98 SELL No $145.80 10m ago
- 0xd3c1…6df4 BUY Yes $1.98 21m ago
- 0x5d5a…a71d BUY No $1.41 21m ago
- 0xb48e…7db5 BUY No $1.45 22m ago
- 0xef29…df63 BUY Yes $1.65 25m ago
- 0xa23c…0f4c BUY Yes $2.70 26m ago
- 0x9f22…0436 BUY Yes $1.98 27m ago
- 0xeab8…022a BUY No $1.41 27m ago
- 0xc47e…5b79 BUY No $1.41 28m ago
- 0xf0c3…1f1e BUY Yes $1.98 28m ago
- 0x2504…483b BUY No $2.40 30m ago
- 0x4b43…de7c BUY No $2.50 30m ago
- 0x565d…87c7 BUY Yes $2.66 30m ago
- 0xdc3c…411d BUY Yes $2.50 30m ago
- 0x11df…e7eb BUY No $1.41 37m ago
- 0xf48f…42f4 BUY Yes $1.98 37m ago
- 0x6bca…f109 BUY Yes $5.00 38m ago
- 0x4eba…c7d7 SELL No $5.01 39m ago
- 0x9657…88fa BUY No $1.15 40m ago
- 0x1da7…c686 BUY No $2.35 46m ago
- 0x34d9…aa49 BUY Yes $1.62 51m ago
- 0x940b…60b6 BUY No $1.41 51m ago
- 0xd53e…0b73 SELL Yes $0.10 51m ago
- 0xc5bd…ceaa SELL Yes $33.41 54m ago
- 0xca97…5409 SELL Yes $16.75 55m ago
- 0xca97…5409 SELL Yes $16.63 57m ago
- 0xc5bd…ceaa SELL Yes $33.26 57m ago
- 0xc6fe…fd7f BUY Yes $8.00 1h ago
- 0x7760…a892 BUY No $3.00 1h ago
- 0xaf9b…4f98 BUY Yes $1.95 1h ago
- 0x7501…0f73 BUY No $1.53 1h ago
- 0xc243…5e94 SELL No $0.38 1h ago
- 0x7bc1…8db4 SELL Yes $8989.82 2h ago
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
Comments
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panic selling because of an attack on kurds CRINE
yungsoleimani makes the rules
you just a little kid man u misunderstand as always i dont make the rules i just collect the money
Israel doing pogroms in Westbank and then i have to listen to them cry oooh buhuhu were the victim everybodys against us 6m buhu bla bla bla bla bla 😭 😭
Judea and Samaria
yeh have you heard this fable bout the merciful samaritan btw?
i think thats bout a guy from the Westbank
Trump: I have plenty of time. Their whole shoreline is wiped out. The Strait of Hormuz is in very good shape. We are talking right now.
I mean it only takes one single strike from now until aug 7th for this resolve as a no, i don’t believe the market is pricing this accurately tbh
Yeah but previously peace talks and ceasefire has lasted for a lot longer, Aug 7 is just around the corner And it's on a Friday so I suppose if we get through this weekend then it will be clear
President Trump: ‘We’ve decided to give Iran some time. Not very long. If they don’t make a deal, we’ll attack very powerfully.’
Mediators make 'significant' progress on renewed US-Iran talks - AP Mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan have made progress toward bringing the United States and Iran back to negotiations and restoring an interim ceasefire deal that collapsed after exchanges of fire, AP reported on Monday, citing two regional officials. AP cited one of the officials as describing the progress made in the mediation efforts as “significant.” The official said mediators were working with Iran and Oman on a mechanism to manage vessels’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the flashpoint for the latest strikes and counterstrikes.
We have heard this song before. It's basically on a two week repeat.
i just dont know what its like to be **** to the core so it all seems so strange to me
You know better than anyone
somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.......
If i was a *** i would be absolutely horrified that a **** country is speaking in my name, but then again im not a ***
You're like a b!$ch that keep moaning and whining. Actually even worse
ooh even more grumpy than usual
You still live with your mom don't you... otherwise you wouldn't be whining so much
and thats the reason nobody said nothing bout the OG Holocaust either..
Horrible footage these men in beards and funny hats steal a home and then they sing a song and gloat about it
WATCH: On Wednesday, Israeli settlers seized the home of the Palestinian Basha family in the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City after Israeli courts ordered their eviction. The family, which consists of six households, most of whom are elderly, have lived in the building since the 1930s.
TACO trump. but i don't get this market...
NEW: An IRIB poll has found that 78% of Iranians support exercising control and levying tolls over the Strait of Hormuz, even if it leads to another full-scale war with the United States
Sure, trust IRIB. Dont be a 🤡
How to make money? just see US bomber depart Germany base 1:30pm start
;)
So a permanent peace deal?Polymarket scam
right, no peace deal ever should resolve YES bcz within infinite time and space possibility to break the peace tends to one
Do you smell burnt toast?
Explain to me like im -9K P/L ... why is July 24th 50/50?
Lmao 🤣
because they stopped shooting on 24. and havent started again (yet)
your -7k doe dont exaggerate
-7k is childs play, i was -6k but im cuming back like the towers EZ!
July 31 is a 100% no
falling for islamist double speak man
USA and Russia has over 8000 nukes between them. What difference does it make if Iran gets a few?
im sorry if i dont feel safe with religious extremists getting nukes too, putin is more than enough as is
why would the religious extremists nuke you?
if they get nukes the US and israel cant bully them anymore, thats the difference
lowest iq recorded
Yours or abdoohls?
So if anyone of the early dates resolve to yes it would make the rest resolve to yes?
yes
America: ‘If you want the nuclear program, you have to recognize Israel’ Not investing in the United States. Not signing a trade or economic agreement with the U.S. No, we want none of that. Instead, we want you, Saudi Arabia, to recognize this foreign nation (Israel) that is completely unrelated to us, has nothing to do with our own national interests, and we’ll give you enrichment.
no one cares about Israel, we care about not letting terrorist religious extremist Iran get a nuclear weapon
You’re a retard. We are literally preconditioning giving the Saudis a nuclear program who are terrorist religious extremists on the precondition they normalize relations with Israel. It’s all about Israel. Even the Canadian trade deal was preconditioned in Israel lmfao
you care A LOT bout israel, every comment from you is glazing israel in some way your just no1 israel fanboi man
Israel is the US's biggest ally why won't they consider them? I know that with you guys you barely care about your own people, let alone about others
Netanyahu says: “Saudi Arabia will receive a civilian nuclear program in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel.”
Iran ready to continue talks in Geneva, Doha or Islamabad - Al Arabiya Iran has told Pakistan it is ready to continue negotiations in Geneva, Doha or Islamabad, Al Arabiya reported, citing a source.
@yungsoleimani please confirm
Cannot confirm, Al Arabiya is a shit source sorry not sorry
ofc when I tell aenews that hes eating his parent poo for dinner I will not join
all the money is yungsoleimani's. sorry not sorry
This is yungsoleimani’s world and we just live in it
wtf is this and why is 24 july still not resolved ?