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Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Politics Vol. $2,641,223 52 traders

December 31, 20250%
June 30, 20260%
December 31, 20264%
$2,641,223 Vol. Politics

Outcomes

3
Chance
December 31, 2025 Resolved
0%
June 30, 2026 Resolved
0%
December 31, 2026
4%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xf9ce…2e6b BUY No $1.00 8h ago
  • 0x8931…a90c BUY No $352.75 19h ago
  • 0x4542…2637 SELL No $5.21 Jul 26
  • 0x5da5…e620 BUY Yes $20.00 Jul 26
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  • 0xc623…3ba8 BUY No $6.61 Jul 21
  • 0xccee…6dcf BUY No $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0x3454…e9ee SELL Yes $1.77 Jul 20
  • 0x84c9…8711 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 20
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  • 0x64ce…3c70 SELL Yes $0.20 Jul 19
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  • 0x0314…2f6d SELL Yes $1.81 Jul 18
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  • 0xff4e…5502 SELL Yes $0.01 Jun 28
  • 0x0515…a166 SELL Yes $0.13 Jun 28
  • 0xa996…34b5 BUY No $2.35 Jun 28
  • 0xa996…34b5 SELL No $3.69 Jun 28
  • 0xa996…34b5 BUY No $2.35 Jun 28

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement. An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia. The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Comments

butterbrot Jun 28

They havent recognized anything in 2022-2025 they certainly wont in 2026 with better funding and munitions than ever

Voidofhype May 9

*PUTIN: I THINK THE UKRAINE CONFLICT IS COMING TO AN END Any end to the war will include new land claims based (in part) on battlefield front lines. 12c for this market compared to 40c for peace deal before 2027 makes this an easy choice. *PUTIN: I HOPE THE IRAN CONFLICT WILL END AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

GautengWolf Apr 24

I think there’s a cleaner path here that avoids all the messy constitutional and institutional hurdles of formally “ceding” territory. Imagine a deal where Ukraine **formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea**, but frames it as part of a **time-bound or conditional arrangement** (e.g. 50–100 years, linked to a broader settlement or future review). You’re not rewriting the entire Ukrainian constitution around territorial loss in a permanent sense — you’re structuring it as a **legal recognition within a negotiated framework**. From this market’s perspective, that should still resolve **Yes**. The rules don’t require permanence, they require **formal recognition**. So even if it’s embedded in a transitional or conditional agreement, once Ukraine makes that legal acknowledgment, the condition is met. In other words, the market is about **de jure recognition**, not about how politically or constitutionally “final” the arrangement feels in practice.

Isidare Jan 7

The land's ownership is unknown, but the glory has always belonged to Ukraine.

Snow-White Jan 23

BROKE-ASS UKRONAZI FILTH, hahahaha, go die for your beliefs like Adolf, COWARDLY LITTLE NAZI!

ArialBlack Jan 4

Zelenskyy: We have neither legal nor moral right to cede territory

betpro3 Dec 29

Only North Korea has recognised the newly occupied territories as Russia and only 13 countries recognise Russian soverieignty over Crimea.

CryptoLox Apr 17

Crimea is Russia

ChainPunkTrader Dec 17

saw the flow shift 2 days before odds moved, alerts dont miss

Floop Dec 11

Russia will lose this war this winter but Putin can not sign a peace deal without making some gains for his supporters. Therefor a symbolic area of land offered to Putin will make peace more likely. Undervalued.

Vacj Mar 13

So, how did it go? Did Russia lose, and the clown? Is it spring already? RUSSIA WILL NEVER lose to anyone; it's simply impossible.

Master42 Mar 13

that is the silliest thing I've read in quite a long time. You glorification of the "paper bear" nazi russia is naive at best

ZephyrNoir Nov 5

Ukraine's hypothetical recognition of Russian sovereignty over its regions by late 2026 would shatter NATO's eastern bulwark and ignite a cascade of separatist demands from the Baltics to the Black Sea.

VatnikPride Nov 16

Sounds good to me: democracy and all those Western values, unlike the current oppression of minorities.

RooseveltSkerrit Nov 4

Ukraine rejects Russian sovereignty claims over its territory amid ongoing war.

BridgetJones Sep 24

People betting YES on this are delusional pro-russians.

marqumax Oct 2

or people hedging against what they consider bad news

mvp99 Dec 3

Shhh....don't spook them

Vacj Mar 13

XOXOL=PIDARAS

Master42 Mar 13

ah, so you're just a russian nazi bitch, now it all makes sense

iLoveGPT Sep 15

Ukraine is Finished

iLoveGPT Sep 15

Zelensky gonna capitulate all this territories

0x21ab476e230a8Dc925305f7F7E7f57706c92B73B-1762980990274 Nov 16

you make me laugh :)

Beyond-Truth Aug 27

this will prob not resolve or or will resolve into no, look at kosovo,

tacticalanalysis Aug 19

Would that also include recognizing Crimea as Russian territory?

MagicEightBall Aug 19

room temp. iq

hehexdd Aug 19

Yes, since Crimea is still considered ukrainian territory by the UN.

migga Aug 18

zelensky will deny, trump weaponizes denial, zelensky gtfo (elections/revolution), peace

slavesdontspeak Aug 27

wow, such an expert here XD

buyrightbake Aug 18

Zelensky [link removed] - “Ukrainians did not give up Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv after 2022.” Look at what is absent

hehexdd Aug 17

"Ukraine won’t give up territory Russia hasn’t captured, Zelenskyy says", in other words, Ukraine will give up territory Russia has captured. [link removed]

buyrightbake Aug 17

All that’s left is to recognize it!

graphtheory Aug 17

Market notification tracker and AI Profile Analyzer TG @PolymarketWalletBot

migga Aug 13

bid daddy Trump or smal d*ck eurpoors ?

migga Aug 13

[link removed]

soft.caramel Aug 17

Trump is an impotent pedo clown, his dick is only big enough to rape little kids

BuckMySalls Aug 9

i didnt hear no bell

buyrightbake Aug 9

Then why’d you dump?

Poli.carpo Aug 8

Puntin won’t accept anything that is not formalised at this point. He’s never been in such a dominant position (I mean, Ukraine would have to rely on the EU only)

pixls Jul 11

Does it really fucking matter? Pm will just: [link removed]

SkyWhisperer Jun 14

There's more chance that Ukraine will cease to exist than that it will recognize russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory. You don't understand how much this is important for Ukrainians.

buyrightbake Jun 21

You’re right that those are their two options

ErorUSSER Jun 21

strong strong

ErorUSSER Jun 21

strong strong my friend

ErorUSSER Jun 21

strong strong

LegaliseFinland Apr 23

"We will never recognize the occupation of Crimea." - Minister of Economy of Ukraine [link removed]

LegaliseFinland Apr 17

No Ukrainian wants this.

zya Mar 27

even if no this will move up to around 40% before the end of the year

buyrightbake Mar 27

There should be a tip jar on each market where the users can contribute to it. Then when it gets to a certain point, it buys an advertising space on a banner on the home page - in order to give it more exposure and increase the volume… These small markets get lost

cqs Mar 30

interested in buying more?

cqs Mar 30

liquidity is really low here

buyrightbake Apr 1

Bring your liquidity up to mine and I’ll raise it

cqs Apr 2

We both will have enough money to provide liquidity after Apr 20 hopefully

buyrightbake Mar 19

“Kursk won’t fall”

buyrightbake Mar 18

“Ukraine doesn’t want to give up territory” Yea that’s what the war’s about.

BuckMySalls Mar 16

[link removed] quick buy more yes

buyrightbake Mar 14

Shhhhhh

SPIT Mar 13

UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL SAYS KYIV WILL NOT RECOGNISE RUSSIAN RIGHTS OVER UKRAINIAN TERRITORY

siick Mar 14

They won’t until the will. If there’s a settlement, it will include giving up land. There will be no frozen line of contact like 2014

buyrightbake Mar 13

We did it! 500k!