Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count. Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify. An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.
Comments
where is drop guys?
What if ukraine cese to exist? Would it count as no?
Depends on the process. Likely a YES when you think it through.
Its possible Ukraine sets a limit since its not really that big of a concession since Ukraine cant afford a army of like 800k in peacetime anyways. They will still be forced to demobilize.
I believe it will happen, but Yes costs as much as Yes on ceasefire, which is much more likely.
There is no chance that Putin will ever accept any settlement that would prevent a third invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine might not want it, but they'll have to give putin something...European negotiators have proposed 800k limit instead of the original 600k proposed by the 28 point proposal..and modifications have been accepted..might get released in a few days
guys, do you understand that there will be never official announcement by Ukraine?
Any peace deal must include surrendering Alaska back to Putin and removing Canada from NATO and downsizing its army. Peace is needed - Alaska must be given back to Putin so he can attack Canada later. We need peace now; why Canada would not accepting that peace deal?
If the conflict ends, Ukraine will not be able to maintain 800k personnel. Nobody is going to pay for it. You guys underestimate how much it costs, so resizing is inevitable here.
If Ukraine limit it's army size it is not because of budget.
believe me, it's going to be number 1 reason.
how the conflict may ever end if Putin wants all the soviet countries back?
The mistrust between Ukraine and Russia is too deep, and limiting their armed forces is the biggest security concession they could make.
They've already limited their armed forces by deciding to fight. Any peace deal will have to include a limited army, though at this rate they will have nobody left to fight by 2027 anyway.
Ukraine agrees to limit size Moscow before 2027