UK Recession in 2026?
Recent trades
25- 0xe9fb…dbd0 BUY Yes $1.00 13h ago
- 0xda00…61b4 SELL Yes $23.00 15h ago
- 0xbea0…e19d BUY No $159.78 15h ago
- 0xe907…cff6 SELL Yes $1.30 21h ago
- 0x126e…c360 SELL No $10.85 Jul 26
- 0x60d2…bf4e SELL No $2.05 Jul 25
- 0x78c5…f623 SELL No $0.58 Jul 25
- 0xe9fb…dbd0 SELL Yes $1.13 Jul 25
- 0xa5c2…5b5f SELL No $37.30 Jul 24
- 0xe907…cff6 BUY Yes $36.19 Jul 24
- 0xa255…2ffc SELL No $33.73 Jul 20
- 0x0e5f…6fa5 BUY No $1.50 Jul 19
- 0xe9fb…dbd0 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
- 0xc71b…e265 SELL Yes $8.82 Jul 15
- 0x8d6b…e23c SELL No $9.28 Jul 10
- 0xcceb…f030 SELL Yes $9.00 Jul 8
- 0xd823…12fe SELL Yes $0.90 Jul 7
- 0x71f0…a19c SELL No $1.01 Jul 7
- 0x5c0a…a2c3 SELL Yes $26.10 Jul 6
- 0xdac4…a8c9 SELL No $93.89 Jul 6
- 0x5c0a…a2c3 SELL Yes $5.75 Jul 5
- 0x5c0a…a2c3 BUY No $23.10 Jul 5
- 0x63c1…70d7 BUY No $250.00 Jul 5
- 0x88b3…bad4 BUY No $7.30 Jul 4
- 0x888f…9aab SELL No $11.25 Jul 2
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered. This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time. The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
Comments
Probably... not? Q1 started decent. The real GDP growth target for 2026 is around 1.0%. The case for a recession seems weak at the moment.
give it a month