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Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?

SpaceX Vol. $57,821 50 traders

December 31, 20268%
December 31, 202768%
$57,821 Vol. SpaceX

Outcomes

2
Chance
December 31, 2026
8%
December 31, 2027
68%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY Yes $122.40 Jul 26
  • 0xc8a2…c9b6 SELL No $15.50 Jul 25
  • 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL No $15.50 Jul 25
  • 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL No $14.37 Jul 25
  • 0x2a20…89d2 SELL No $16.00 Jul 25
  • 0x073e…8416 SELL No $15.50 Jul 25
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY Yes $279.19 Jul 25
  • 0xbed0…e918 SELL Yes $0.74 Jul 24
  • 0xf24f…80e3 BUY Yes $3.20 Jul 24
  • 0x3089…92f6 SELL No $3.33 Jul 23
  • 0x3089…92f6 SELL No $11.07 Jul 23
  • 0x3089…92f6 SELL No $34.85 Jul 23
  • 0x3089…92f6 SELL No $9.43 Jul 23
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $29.00 Jul 23
  • 0x89f4…6950 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0x4a7f…3797 SELL Yes $3.50 Jul 22
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $58.17 Jul 22
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY Yes $6.69 Jul 22
  • 0xe72c…ef71 SELL No $22.86 Jul 22
  • 0x89f4…6950 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL Yes $3.50 Jul 22
  • 0x89f4…6950 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0xc8a2…c9b6 SELL Yes $3.68 Jul 22
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $39.90 Jul 22
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY Yes $53.19 Jul 21
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY Yes $227.30 Jul 21
  • 0x1583…bdde SELL Yes $26.50 Jul 21
  • 0x92c0…9823 SELL No $0.93 Jul 21
  • 0x92c0…9823 BUY No $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0x770d…567a BUY No $2.82 Jul 21
  • 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL No $1.70 Jul 21
  • 0xaf33…1e17 SELL Yes $16.74 Jul 21
  • 0x2af6…7fce BUY No $1.00 Jul 20
  • 0x21eb…a9fd SELL Yes $8.00 Jul 20
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $65.00 Jul 20
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $25.28 Jul 20
  • 0xdb7e…2205 BUY Yes $45.72 Jul 20
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $8.51 Jul 20
  • 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL Yes $4.50 Jul 20
  • 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL Yes $4.50 Jul 20

This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-1766507216051 Jun 17

"The two vessels must be free-flying" , "If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify." What is the purpose of including these two convoluted conditions? What does "free flight" refer to? And what on earth does "passive placement" mean? Can't they both use engines, or can they? What is the point of these two seemingly contradictory conditions? In any case, why not leave these details to the SpaceX engineers?

RandomBozo Jun 23

I think it means berthing rather than docking?

RandomBozo Jun 16

Barring catastrophic failure, before December 31st is likely