Iran leader end of 2026?
Outcomes
123Recent trades
40- 0xb0bf…0bad SELL No $2.99 43s ago
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- 0x2961…66c0 BUY No $2.57 1h ago
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- 0x8f3e…cba9 BUY No $5.90 2h ago
- 0xe907…cff6 SELL Yes $10.20 2h ago
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- 0x32a5…50fa SELL No $3.68 2h ago
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- 0x1869…5a0d SELL Yes $4.45 2h ago
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- 0x0175…13b0 BUY No $2.47 3h ago
- 0x7c2e…083e BUY No $0.44 3h ago
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Comments
WHO ARE THE CLOWNS BIDDING THIS DOWN
Only idiots, watch us or Israel take that disabled already leader out…
sure bag holder, Mojtaba yes is literally 92% chance and your avg. no is high af, you've already lost this one
Hes dead.
Invisible leader
Mojtaba for the win!
Mojtaba yes will print, Americans are already frustrated because of that orange fatso's actions and the fact they are being called child murderers now by many countries, most are not ok with this and that means Mojtaba will remain in power (92% chance)
Trump is going balls to the wall to force the regime change. This year he proved to not taco by wiping out the previous leaders. He’s hella pissed now with what’s going in the strait. Either he wipes them out or America goes into the deepest levels of the Great Depression from all the war spending and let’s be real this mfer wants to his ratings to go up by end of year.
This is already over.
Mfer been dead just need intel to leak it. Fucking IRGC worst than a girlfriend who will cry to your face but is actually lying behind the tears.
This fucker already dead!!!!
yesss
Operation Nuke Yes holders
Mark my words this bitch is going to flip to no
Ooo possibly more friction in negotiations - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
The all of sudden jump in no head of state is interesting. Maybe trump finna nuke all of Iran.
It’s going down! I’m yelling timber!
Say hi to Ali Khomeini
I wonder if he’s actually dead and if so how long will they use his ghost as a placeholder
Profit is profit.
Add option UMA chooses next leader of IRAN
I don't understand why the scandalous lack of any proof that Mojtaba is alive isn't being used as a major weapon against the regime.
Not attending your father's funeral is essentially tacit confirmation that he's dead and the IRGC are using his name as a marionette to run the whole show. Pezeshkian totally irrelevant and sidelined.
that's something that orange moron would've said
Or cause it would have been an easy way to get him killed too
I’m sure it will come to light as some point just hopefully it’s this year.
Easy money
The 🐽 is not alive
Mojtaba is a no show for his fathers funeral…
hard to bet against the status quo holding through the year
It's strategically important for the IRGC to keep ambiguous Mojtaba's status, weither he's in the best shape of his life or, more likely, under an unmarked grave. This market real value is more or less "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?", currently sitting wayyyy cheaper at 13 cent.
People overwhelmingly want Pahlavi and the current leaders keep dropping, isn’t it obvious?
[link removed] Us intelligence and CIA shows Mojtbna Khamenei is either dead or cannot function normally. No way he is leading his fractured country…
Many market resolve over a negative outcome not because they didn't happen but because there is no way to prove it happened in the given timeframe. I 100% agree with you but right now doesn't matter his state, IRGC has no interest in revealing the truth. Even if war resumes and he's dead and none knows about it and Israel kills more leaders, how do we know he's not leader anymore? Weird situation to be at.
That’s a very valid and legitimate point… truth doesn’t always win on Polymarket
Starting to feel a bit overheated
whats going on with odds right now?
I would add Mohsen Rezaei
Rezaei would be more palatable than Vahidi
Yup that's why I say it
[link removed] Khamenei is ousted by Irans revolutionary supreme guards, looks like they are not taking orders from him.
Khamenei is not in charge anymore, ....[link removed]
Mojtaba Khamenei agreed with the ceasefire. GG
Just like his father posted on X after confirmed being dead for 24 hours. Other people are running their X accounts for them
Mojtaba is a vegetable how does he have 40%? wtf?
He has 10 Hp and 44 % chance. 😏👍🏻
In theory if there is a ceasefire and nobody announce him dead by Dec 31, he's still technically the leader...
Khamenei is not in charge anymore[link removed]
"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?" Market already reached near-zero 🤣
Mojtaba is dead 🎉
hes obviously in a bunker
fucking legend
His father was in one as well
no he wasnt, he refused to go into hiding and was bombed in his office
🙃
Mojtaba is death.
https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568