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Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran Vol. $6,652,017 133 traders

July 150%
July 314%
August 3130%
July 240%
$6,652,017 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

10
Chance
June 30 Resolved
0%
July 15 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 31
4% ▼ 3
August 31
30% ▲ 2
July 21 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 24 Resolved
0% ▼ 9
August 15
19% ▼ 3
July 27
<1% ▼ 2
September 30
41%
December 31
59%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x79f7…d24a SELL No $1.94 17m ago
  • 0x6706…2341 SELL No $0.98 17m ago
  • 0xfd5a…aa7a SELL No $2.74 18m ago
  • 0xae1d…e333 SELL Yes $3.10 18m ago
  • 0x5488…4ebf BUY No $2.30 18m ago
  • 0x6bcd…c49e BUY Yes $3.34 18m ago
  • 0xb027…1e44 BUY No $26.44 18m ago
  • 0xd0e7…59e8 BUY No $21.56 18m ago
  • 0x21ee…cc0f BUY No $12.07 18m ago
  • 0x327b…82a7 BUY No $23.23 18m ago
  • 0xb924…0803 SELL No $14.00 21m ago
  • 0x86ac…b49d SELL No $5.78 23m ago
  • 0xe7e9…99e6 SELL No $5.04 30m ago
  • 0x1ccf…99ec SELL No $5.04 31m ago
  • 0x836f…906e BUY No $1277.69 33m ago
  • 0x2b09…3277 BUY No $14.47 36m ago
  • 0x1052…80a6 BUY No $27.05 48m ago
  • 0x5159…1a81 BUY Yes $3.98 48m ago
  • 0x2a60…3386 BUY No $26.38 48m ago
  • 0xf870…12bf BUY No $16.90 48m ago
  • 0xef3f…d40d BUY No $13.16 48m ago
  • 0x60ad…c5ac BUY No $14.89 48m ago
  • 0x1474…9d60 BUY No $1.26 1h ago
  • 0x3ad9…4e11 BUY No $1.96 1h ago
  • 0x82cd…d7d8 SELL Yes $9.28 2h ago
  • 0x82fb…bed6 SELL Yes $6.00 2h ago
  • 0x83d7…e8ba SELL Yes $29.23 2h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $49.01 2h ago
  • 0xf835…3f01 BUY Yes $1.00 3h ago
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL No $13.60 3h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $3.20 4h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $8.68 4h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $22.44 4h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $6.40 4h ago
  • 0x60a9…5a71 BUY Yes $5.00 4h ago
  • 0x598b…d526 SELL Yes $4.03 4h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $17.98 4h ago
  • 0xdcec…d169 BUY Yes $1.65 4h ago
  • 0x1ca5…80f5 BUY Yes $2.99 4h ago
  • 0x598b…d526 SELL Yes $1.50 4h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

NOIZYUV 13h ago

Trump: "I’m not giving much time for negotiations. If the talks fail, we will return to powerful military action."

Shay1 9h ago

Exactly why i bought with every dollar 🥹

NOIZYUV 19h ago

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "As of now, we are not conducting any negotiations with the US. As long as the US does not understand that Hormuz is under Iranian control, Hormuz will remain closed."

Mikelious 20h ago

BREAKING: ISRAEL JUST INTERCEPTED 2 UNIDENTIFIED DRONES ALONG THE JORDANIAN BORDER. INVESTIGATIONS OF THE SOURCE HAVE BEGUN.

Mikelious 22h ago

Iranian drone just hit a cargo ship.

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Yalla balagan!

Shay1 21h ago

Fr fr🤣 soon

abdoohl Jul 27

Iranian diaspora and clown prince Reza just the lowest scum, just sayin 🤡

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Everyone is very interested in what you have to say

abdoohl Jul 27

Reza Pahlavi met with the President of the World Jewish Congress in Israel, Sylvan Adams.

abdoohl Jul 26

Iran’s missile stockpile also astonished American strategists and military planners, who had falsely assumed that it would run out of launch capacity within a few weeks to months. Not only does Iran still have large amounts of missiles and drones, these projectiles are becoming increasingly lethal due to adaptation of targeting data and satellite feeds provided by allies.

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

theyre expensive though

NOIZYUV Jul 26

Iran: We have informed the mediators that we will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and that there will be no new route under different control; if the Americans wish to hold talks, they are welcome to do so on our terms.

Shay1 Jul 26

Alr we close asf to war it’s like 95% ready

NOIZYUV Jul 26

Iran: IRGC attacked an oil tanker that deviated from the shipping route designated by Iran.

Shay1 Jul 26

Israel prepared for the war back in a short time and for those who hold Israel air space they want to keep a piece of airspace open with the war

Shay1 Jul 26

I don’t believe that we that quiet for not good reason I’m all in fuck it

abdoohl Jul 26

🔥

Shay1 Jul 26

No luck for me I guess ofc I will buy 40 after days sticking on 55/59 and now is 36😤

Shay1 Jul 25

🔴 *Delayed End: Israel Prepared for a Large-Scale American Attack on Iran Tonight - Latest Statement Withdrawn* ✍️The small cabinet met last night for a more than 5-hour discussion on Iran, with the expectation that the attack that Trump said he was "considering" would be carried out that night; only late in the evening did it become clear in Jerusalem that the president had chosen to give Tehran another chance, and that all parties involved were instructed to go on alert. dumb ass trump always go back like a snake scared to be bitten in the ass

NOIZYUV Jul 25

With ☪️ if you dont bite you get bitten

Shay1 Jul 25

Yup that blonde mf never learned

Shay1 Jul 26

Hey bud why your bought 27 it’s close asf the date

NOIZYUV Jul 26

It was cheap so I figured why not

Shay1 Jul 26

I’m mean yea fr

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

except that theyve paused strikes for 2 days in a row now, or 3, & closure is looking very unlikely rn

NOIZYUV Jul 25

Trump: "I am definitely considering a full return to combat if we don't get 100% of what we demand from Iran."

Shay1 Jul 25

Yea and he said they got like 3 days

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

theyve paused for negotiations

Shay1 Jul 25

First night without attack weird

NOIZYUV Jul 25

TACO?

Shay1 Jul 25

Propose no for what dumbass mfs we still not over any date in time 🥀

NOIZYUV Jul 25

You said it will happen this weekend

abdoohl Jul 25

he said this weeknd or next doe

Shay1 Jul 25

Yea it’s supposed too tonight or first 2 days of the weekend weird asf trump and his shi ass people discussing about Iran if they should make it way bigger attacks and damage

Lolakis Jul 25

Propose no.

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

i would if i had 750 lying around

SunFiyre Jul 24

Propose no.

pink.impala Jul 25

dont play dumb

SunFiyre Jul 25

wdym?

pink.impala Jul 25

i told you to stop..

SunFiyre Jul 25

sorry, i dont listen to red profiles. haha

SunFiyre Jul 25

even if im 1 dollar up.

pink.impala Jul 25

i was -6k not long ago, this is nothing

pink.impala Jul 25

soon enough im gonna be in the profit again!

SunFiyre Jul 25

good for you bro, i dont have much funds to showoff anyways, its my all in this current market.

Lolakis Jul 25

are u regarded

SIMOMEGA Jul 25

i agree with u but for the sake of critical thinking, thats not a good argument

SIMOMEGA Jul 25

yes hes regarded as a no holder

SunFiyre Jul 25

i just told the truth and disposed off the argument, dont be a main character here atleast mf.

SunFiyre Jul 25

yes ur father is regarded. hope u digest this one.

SunFiyre Jul 25

haha, ok depressed loner.

SunFiyre Jul 25

my higher win was on 'yes;, i dont play even odd here, cocsukr

abdoohl Jul 25

i dont understand this thread did someone delete a comment?

abdoohl Jul 25

did you delete comment as usual??

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

whats ur problem i was defending you wtf lmao

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

i never delete comments wdym, if anything polymarket deletes them, its him going schizo, i was defending him

Mikelious Jul 24

"Trump: Rubio, Vance talking with Iran"

Mikelious Jul 24

"PM Netanyahu will travel to Washington on Monday at President Donald Trump’s invitation. He is set to meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday and attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham." Nothing burgers don't lose your money kids.

NOIZYUV Jul 24

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says Iran will not accept a temporary ceasefire, and this matter will not be raised unless Tehran's demands regarding the Strait are met, Sky News Arabia reports