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Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Fed Vol. $579,281 50 traders

Other75%
Pause–Pause–Pause22%
Pause–Pause–Cut3%
Pause–Cut–Pause2%
$579,281 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

9
Chance
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
22% ▼ 10
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
75% ▲ 11

Recent trades

40
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $11.00 31m ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $3.45 38m ago
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $6.60 40m ago
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $52.80 40m ago
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $39.02 1h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $17.63 1h ago
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $39.50 1h ago
  • 0xb22a…1479 SELL Yes $9.49 1h ago
  • 0xd219…0412 SELL Yes $9.50 1h ago
  • 0x6b67…3998 SELL Yes $9.60 1h ago
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $405.52 1h ago
  • 0x517a…6491 BUY Yes $1.97 1h ago
  • 0x517a…6491 BUY Yes $8.80 1h ago
  • 0x9882…1d24 SELL Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0x0d4d…4a9d SELL Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0xf18c…18c1 SELL Yes $20.00 1h ago
  • 0x00b5…1b11 SELL Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0xc8fb…7c7e SELL Yes $2.10 1h ago
  • 0xfc92…27c9 SELL Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0xc8fb…7c7e SELL Yes $194.94 1h ago
  • 0xc8fb…7c7e SELL Yes $112.89 1h ago
  • 0x9c90…17ef SELL Yes $4.99 1h ago
  • 0x9c90…17ef SELL Yes $5.00 1h ago
  • 0x9c90…17ef SELL Yes $5.08 1h ago
  • 0x508d…791a SELL Yes $12.51 1h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $21.41 5h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.37 5h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $9.69 5h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $3.28 5h ago
  • 0x31ff…209b BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x31ff…209b BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0x46b1…428c SELL Yes $2.74 Jul 26
  • 0x2801…9dfe SELL Yes $0.47 Jul 26
  • 0xb275…7a5c SELL Yes $0.73 Jul 26
  • 0x8092…b8a2 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 26
  • 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $75.23 Jul 26
  • 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $10.89 Jul 26
  • 0xfffa…325f SELL Yes $0.57 Jul 26
  • 0xfffa…325f SELL Yes $4.09 Jul 26
  • 0xfffa…325f BUY Yes $1.22 Jul 26

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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