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ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

ECB Vol. $145,597 50 traders

25 bps increase80%
No change20%
50+ bps increase3%
25 bps decrease0%
$145,597 Vol. ECB

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
20% ▲ 2
25 bps increase
80% ▲ 3
50+ bps increase
3%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x4d5a…02ea BUY No $17.17 3h ago
  • 0xccb3…c2e4 SELL Yes $8.00 5h ago
  • 0x4a3b…3149 SELL Yes $0.28 5h ago
  • 0xa667…ceb3 BUY No $29.53 8h ago
  • 0xda00…61b4 SELL Yes $18.00 11h ago
  • 0x5073…16a7 SELL Yes $28.81 11h ago
  • 0xebc8…88eb BUY Yes $10.00 16h ago
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL No $9.60 20h ago
  • 0x5968…3fc4 BUY Yes $40.00 20h ago
  • 0x38a8…865a SELL No $1.27 20h ago
  • 0x38a8…865a SELL No $1.43 20h ago
  • 0x91dd…1906 BUY Yes $5.24 20h ago
  • 0xab03…358b BUY Yes $4.77 20h ago
  • 0xc695…66d1 BUY Yes $5.39 20h ago
  • 0xcdb1…276c BUY Yes $797.87 20h ago
  • 0x25f9…f1f0 BUY Yes $63.96 20h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $1.29 21h ago
  • 0xd8c1…16c0 BUY Yes $100.00 21h ago
  • 0xd8c1…16c0 BUY Yes $10.00 21h ago
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $39.27 Jul 27
  • 0x765f…1508 SELL Yes $134.95 Jul 27
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $24.60 Jul 27
  • 0xe457…5ab3 BUY No $24.90 Jul 27
  • 0x9614…d217 SELL No $37.46 Jul 26
  • 0x1e25…0f29 BUY Yes $40.00 Jul 26
  • 0x5ae6…21c0 SELL Yes $40.31 Jul 26
  • 0x6b8a…f6a4 SELL No $82.00 Jul 26
  • 0xfc92…27c9 SELL No $36.89 Jul 26
  • 0xefdd…8370 SELL Yes $32.81 Jul 26
  • 0x5bb5…5605 BUY Yes $1.62 Jul 26
  • 0x8b0d…9501 SELL No $103.40 Jul 26
  • 0xfc92…27c9 BUY Yes $5.17 Jul 26
  • 0xefdd…8370 BUY Yes $128.69 Jul 26
  • 0x7a16…518b SELL Yes $43.09 Jul 26
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.01 Jul 26
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.04 Jul 26
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.60 Jul 26
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $4.00 Jul 26
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.20 Jul 26
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.01 Jul 26

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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