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ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

ECB Vol. $1,508 50 traders

No change72%
25 bps increase16%
50+ bps increase5%
50+ bps decrease11%
$1,508 Vol. ECB

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
11% ▼ 4
25 bps decrease
6% ▼ 3
No change
72% ▲ 13
25 bps increase
16% ▲ 5
50+ bps increase
5%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xc243…5e94 BUY Yes $3.65 52m ago
  • 0xd466…17dd SELL Yes $2.20 8h ago
  • 0xcdb1…276c BUY Yes $65.55 8h ago
  • 0x39c3…0c7e BUY Yes $1.36 13h ago
  • 0x6b8a…f6a4 SELL No $19.50 18h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $1.95 18h ago
  • 0x0f99…6734 SELL No $69.08 18h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL No $30.80 18h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $60.00 18h ago
  • 0xeca0…e8f8 BUY Yes $296.98 18h ago
  • 0xd8c1…16c0 BUY Yes $10.00 21h ago
  • 0xd466…17dd BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 26
  • 0x738a…5996 BUY Yes $30.00 Jul 26
  • 0x3057…bf7b BUY Yes $5.90 Jul 26
  • 0x0c9b…e768 BUY No $21.34 Jul 25
  • 0x0c9b…e768 SELL Yes $0.50 Jul 25
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $15.84 Jul 25
  • 0x9db3…1d38 SELL Yes $7.16 Jul 25
  • 0x9db3…1d38 SELL Yes $18.23 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $9.20 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $9.10 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.40 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $7.80 Jul 25
  • 0x2247…4304 SELL No $18.00 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.36 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.43 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $1.10 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.00 Jul 25
  • 0x9db3…1d38 BUY Yes $2.64 Jul 25
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $9.40 Jul 25
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $9.40 Jul 25
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $4.00 Jul 25
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $7.50 Jul 25
  • 0xd1a6…1507 BUY No $9.40 Jul 25
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $9.40 Jul 25
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $9.40 Jul 25
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $4.00 Jul 25
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $7.50 Jul 25
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $9.40 Jul 25
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 25

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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