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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

HFC Vol. $3,125,486 62 traders

Yes7%
No93%
$3,125,486 Vol. HFC
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
7%

Recent trades

25
  • 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.96 21m ago
  • 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.98 21m ago
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.96 1h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.98 1h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.96 2h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.98 2h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.96 2h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.98 2h ago
  • 0xcbff…f748 BUY Yes $40.62 5h ago
  • 0x258b…4f7d BUY No $1.00 11h ago
  • 0xbfa9…c2c3 BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x0ab6…8eef SELL Yes $5.80 15h ago
  • 0x14be…4498 SELL Yes $168.34 19h ago
  • 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.97 20h ago
  • 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.98 20h ago
  • 0xcd2d…5e97 SELL Yes $0.77 20h ago
  • 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.97 21h ago
  • 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.98 21h ago
  • 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.97 22h ago
  • 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.98 22h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.97 23h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.98 23h ago
  • 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.97 Jul 27
  • 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.98 Jul 27
  • 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.97 Jul 27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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