AI bubble burst by...?
Outcomes
3Recent trades
40- 0x2a5b…b78b BUY No $1.01 2h ago
- 0x572c…4360 BUY No $1.01 2h ago
- 0xcdb1…276c BUY No $25.03 2h ago
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $4.21 11h ago
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $274.08 13h ago
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $1219.57 13h ago
- 0x2801…9dfe SELL No $0.84 19h ago
- 0xa3af…b7a6 BUY No $4.20 Jul 26
- 0x560c…bba8 SELL No $4.36 Jul 26
- 0xf6ea…0a00 BUY No $5.88 Jul 25
- 0xf580…73e0 SELL Yes $0.84 Jul 24
- 0xea67…554b SELL Yes $8.02 Jul 24
- 0x9595…f347 BUY No $10.00 Jul 24
- 0xb93e…195e SELL Yes $42.10 Jul 24
- 0xa667…ceb3 BUY No $4.73 Jul 24
- 0x2801…9dfe BUY No $4.95 Jul 23
- 0x9f77…cc51 BUY No $10.00 Jul 23
- 0xa5e2…72a9 BUY Yes $49.00 Jul 23
- 0x8403…bb7a BUY No $10.00 Jul 22
- 0x0aec…883f SELL No $114.37 Jul 22
- 0xff47…d81f SELL No $13.48 Jul 22
- 0xe22c…7baf BUY No $10.00 Jul 22
- 0xa406…ecb9 BUY No $8.00 Jul 21
- 0x2801…9dfe SELL No $4.14 Jul 21
- 0x2801…9dfe BUY No $4.29 Jul 21
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $598.76 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $689.31 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $614.38 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $654.35 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $599.40 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $534.47 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $629.37 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $564.43 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $564.43 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $704.29 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $714.28 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $919.08 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $619.38 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $484.51 Apr 1
- 0xf6ea…0a00 SELL No $674.61 Apr 1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Comments
Looking at this again the rules are not favorable for a yes resolution even though the bubble is bursting. Market lower options are far better.
I need a december 2027 option
Bad rules...
Fr
Wow the odds keep increasing, but the nadsaq alao keeps puffing up higher into the atmosphere. That is completely... Illogical....but for a wyckoff distribution, is perfectly logical.
This is about to go up in price /yes for by Dec significantly..
This weekend has a very weird feel to it with these tech earnings and open ai problems. Sore video hallucinations. All that weird stuff like strawberries with a berry and straw. The Ai firms haven't fixed this problem. That was actually a reason for the first down market move from 25200 to 23500 summer 2025 support... Then we all concluded to buy the war dip and other stuff that no economist says actually make sense high oil prices are terrible for Ai. For tech. But most market participants don't know this. Yes, we've had a huge bullish move once the institutions stopped selling. People are buying for no reason, but they are, we have another bank failure, national debt a big problem, this fundamentally smells like an economic disaster but has kept meaning (???) higher prices lately for no reason.
lol, this is like free money
The rules are bullshit for the following reasons: 1. Just one of many Semi companies dropping 50% from ATH does not really mean much 2. The rental price of H100 could fall to $1 if better hardware comes out or if the computing supply increases drastically 3. The SOXX etf dropping 40% from ATH (2024 levels) could be completely unrelated to AI and instead triggered by general market downturn since semiconductors are a volatile cyclical industry The 3 of those being equal to "AI bubble burst" is ridiculous
I'd like to subscribe to more hot takes from people with 0 shares
OpenAI has dissolved Sora.
That doesn't affect the resolution of this market based on its rules
blah blah blah ediot
The biggest problem with AI foam right now is that the foam isn't big enough.
Baidu kunlunxin trained deepseek v4 so that should definitely pop the bubble
Why is OpenAI being acquired listed as a prong?
Super Micro Computer's ATH was 116 on March 07 2024 and it reached a price of 54 on August 12 2024 which was before this market was even created. Am I missing something?
Tenemos que fijarnos en el cierre del primer trimestre. (Q3)
It’s hard to understand why this market has held up this long.
Whales are still longing Nvidia and the "Bubble Burst" odds are stuck at 18%.......
liquidity is trash tho
The rules are just crazy. It's surprising that anyone actually believes that even two of these insane points can be achieved within 90 days.
Isn't Super Micro already down 50% from ATH?
yes
It is but since the market was created. 90 days have already passed so it does not count
Should adjust more period
The Big Short
AI is not a bubble
in this case you better use your money to short those stocks instead of betting yes here
The bankers sitting back writing and under-writing BS like this is bizarre. You should sell yes on all these long tail events you will net out +30% profit easy in 2026
I could see the H100 rental price dipping hard under certain conditions. I just don't know enough about that market to make an informed guess.
WSJ: OpenAI CEO Declares ‘Code Red’. If OpenAI sinks, everything crumbles due to circular deals (NVDA, Oracle, AMD, ...)
you're rly putting that much on the word of the OpenAI's CEO...
buying yes to hedge
30% high-priced for 1 year only
Those conditions to hit yes are in bubble too 😂
i think leverage shorting nvidia by small fractions is much more profitable
WSJ: Nvidia Sinks, Alphabet Surges on Growing AI Chip Rivalry
A DeepSeek moment for chips is coming
What do you mean?
Oh boy
All it takes is: a Chinese company releases a new chip, 20% more performing vs. NVDA. Then, all forecasts change downward and the market sinks.
It takes about 2-3 years to reverse engineer and build an improved iteration. It started after GPT launch in 2022, it's about time
Even Google built their own silicon and it's not their core business
Last: the market doesn't need the new improved chip. The fear of it is sufficient.
lol 20% more powerful chip than NVDA? lol from what ? Why wouldn't AMD have done that .
Not realistic at all for any manufaturer to produce chips outperforming NVDA's by 20%. Nothing in current technologies makes that plausible
you work in tech? because i do
not gonna dox myself but just know I worked at one of the biggest cloud providers (a key player in the AI market). Besides that doesn't address my point, a 20% improvement over NVDA's SOTA GPUs is not at all plausible
until it is
Yes by Dec 31st seems high EV if I'm not missing something? SMCI already down over 50%, SOXX at $270 rn and needs to hit ~$187, NVDA at $178 and needs to hit ~$105. Others seem unlikely. Further tech sell-off acceleration before EOY could raise odds up from 3% to 10%-15%+?
What defines it bursting? Lol this website is so fucked
Maybe read the market rules?
the market rules are so ass
the rules are insane lmao
don't bet on this
all the rules here is crazy except the nvidia one
This market and the recession market for 2026 are valued wildly wrong
SMCI doesn't make sense there
this market is in a bubble