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Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Iran Vol. $74,632 50 traders

August 314%
July 311%
$74,632 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

2
Chance
July 31
<1% ▼ 1
August 31
4% ▼ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x2b09…3277 BUY No $29.76 37m ago
  • 0xa5c2…5b5f SELL Yes $2.00 2h ago
  • 0x9d73…216b BUY No $708.59 2h ago
  • 0x9d73…216b BUY No $543.72 2h ago
  • 0x9d73…216b BUY No $342.97 2h ago
  • 0x9d73…216b BUY No $98.59 2h ago
  • 0x819f…70bc BUY No $1000.00 7h ago
  • 0xff7c…b233 SELL No $146.28 8h ago
  • 0x238f…3015 SELL Yes $0.23 14h ago
  • 0x9210…fc96 BUY No $1.00 19h ago
  • 0x98f8…bb19 SELL Yes $8.32 19h ago
  • 0x0f5a…1fc8 SELL Yes $21.44 19h ago
  • 0x0f5a…1fc8 SELL Yes $30.08 19h ago
  • 0x98f8…bb19 SELL Yes $29.76 19h ago
  • 0x98f8…bb19 SELL Yes $29.12 19h ago
  • 0xdf5a…029a SELL Yes $0.03 19h ago
  • 0xf724…cd9b SELL Yes $29.12 19h ago
  • 0xf724…cd9b SELL Yes $29.76 19h ago
  • 0xf724…cd9b SELL Yes $0.96 19h ago
  • 0xdf5a…029a SELL Yes $29.12 19h ago
  • 0xdf5a…029a SELL Yes $29.71 19h ago
  • 0xb41e…11fd SELL Yes $0.05 19h ago
  • 0x09b6…2188 SELL Yes $0.21 19h ago
  • 0x09b6…2188 SELL No $4.71 19h ago
  • 0x09b6…2188 BUY No $4.80 19h ago
  • 0x09b6…2188 BUY Yes $0.35 19h ago
  • 0x09b6…2188 SELL Yes $0.03 20h ago
  • 0x8727…1409 SELL Yes $26.40 20h ago
  • 0x248f…4d41 BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 26
  • 0x880d…adb6 BUY No $129.03 Jul 26
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $0.35 Jul 26
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $0.40 Jul 26
  • 0x880d…adb6 BUY No $351.76 Jul 26
  • 0x17de…b94e BUY No $39.56 Jul 25
  • 0x880d…adb6 BUY No $529.69 Jul 25
  • 0x8955…c4cb BUY No $38.87 Jul 24
  • 0xbbf6…3e76 BUY No $77.32 Jul 24
  • 0xcbac…732c BUY No $39.32 Jul 24
  • 0x9592…a7b8 BUY Yes $0.16 Jul 24
  • 0x54bb…5787 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 23

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

DontTrustMe Jul 21

I'm not a military expert but it's probably easier to take control of this island than Kharg island. Prices should reflect that if they made sense. 🤷‍♂️

BigRabbit Jul 21

Dec 31 strikes please