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9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Earthquakes Vol. $257,214 50 traders

Yes7%
No93%
$257,214 Vol. Earthquakes
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7% ▼ 1

Recent trades

25
  • 0x99dc…bcda BUY No $1.01 7h ago
  • 0x771d…440e BUY No $92.71 7h ago
  • 0x99dc…bcda BUY No $1.01 8h ago
  • 0x771d…440e BUY No $61.24 8h ago
  • 0xc465…185c SELL No $45.67 23h ago
  • 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $4.56 Jul 26
  • 0x84b0…5bc8 BUY No $4.57 Jul 26
  • 0x1bf7…6f57 BUY No $4.56 Jul 25
  • 0x84b0…5bc8 BUY No $2736.00 Jul 25
  • 0x99dc…bcda BUY No $1.01 Jul 25
  • 0x771d…440e BUY No $912.00 Jul 25
  • 0x99dc…bcda BUY No $1.01 Jul 25
  • 0x771d…440e BUY No $1273.15 Jul 25
  • 0x84b0…5bc8 BUY No $456.00 Jul 24
  • 0x9e72…5a40 BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 24
  • 0x9941…fc5c SELL Yes $76.27 Jul 24
  • 0xe5c2…2b81 BUY No $27.36 Jul 23
  • 0xa5d3…3c28 SELL Yes $9.99 Jul 23
  • 0xc7db…81c1 BUY No $285.00 Jul 22
  • 0x198a…3ca3 BUY No $137.87 Jul 22
  • 0xfdfa…7fa8 BUY Yes $0.44 Jul 22
  • 0x856c…727d BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0xeb84…5685 BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 18
  • 0xcd8f…f877 SELL Yes $4.28 Jul 17
  • 0x510f…a43c SELL No $28.20 Jul 17

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Comments

yunocchi Feb 9

There have only been 5 recorded earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher:

Lord-Rothschild Jan 5

11%??? Yall are crazy

Penthyn Jan 6

Statistically it's like 7-8%. 11% is off but not much.

0x36260A41f266d4F35491dAD434A4259a8c89E372-1768712356467 Jan 28

2% probability, 2 earthquakes like that per century, 21 had already two.

sbinnala Dec 20

wait for a year for 10% return its boring

Basilomo Dec 30

12% * more than avg sp500