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2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Science Vol. $118,071 50 traders

1st hottest86%
3rd hottest5%
2nd hottest7%
4th or lower1%
$118,071 Vol. Science

Outcomes

4
Chance
1st hottest
86% ▼ 9
2nd hottest
7% ▲ 5
3rd hottest
5% ▲ 1
4th or lower
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x82c7…f1f8 BUY No $10.78 1h ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY Yes $1.56 1h ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY Yes $3.48 1h ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY Yes $0.23 1h ago
  • 0x074c…771c SELL No $0.68 2h ago
  • 0xfd17…e9ed BUY Yes $5.00 2h ago
  • 0x82c7…f1f8 BUY No $6.58 2h ago
  • 0x82c7…f1f8 BUY No $3.90 2h ago
  • 0x5c0a…a2c3 BUY Yes $8.42 4h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL No $0.94 4h ago
  • 0xbced…84e9 SELL Yes $1.02 4h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $9.28 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $11.14 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $49.24 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $13.36 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $16.02 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $55.71 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $65.98 11h ago
  • 0x8fae…2f76 BUY Yes $4.50 11h ago
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $12.90 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $104.34 12h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $102.60 12h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $154.80 12h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $54.54 12h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $376.17 12h ago
  • 0x29e7…fbbf SELL Yes $1.26 12h ago
  • 0xcdf5…e344 SELL Yes $13.65 16h ago
  • 0xe347…b438 BUY No $9.32 16h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $13.01 16h ago
  • 0xe347…b438 BUY No $0.78 16h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $1.09 16h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $2.10 16h ago
  • 0x6206…cf4c BUY Yes $1.00 16h ago
  • 0x73a9…252d BUY Yes $1.00 16h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $25.02 16h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $6.80 16h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $8.00 16h ago
  • 0x1186…051b BUY Yes $33.78 16h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $14.25 16h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $80.75 16h ago

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Comments

ballzi. 16h ago

this is going to be a very emotional rollercoaster for some in about 2 weeks