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100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Space Vol. $8,824 50 traders

Yes7%
No93%
$8,824 Vol. Space
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
7% ▼ 1

Recent trades

25
  • 0x8931…a90c BUY No $268.37 19h ago
  • 0x4add…8cdf BUY No $2.00 Jul 26
  • 0x3d3c…630b BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 24
  • 0x3746…7f84 SELL No $3.50 Jul 23
  • 0xfdbc…81f8 SELL No $2.59 Jul 18
  • 0x4ee3…1b83 BUY No $2.00 Jul 16
  • 0x7f5b…b202 SELL No $55.90 Jul 14
  • 0x8af7…299a SELL Yes $0.41 Jul 13
  • 0xa667…ceb3 BUY No $4.79 Jul 12
  • 0xc6d7…4399 SELL Yes $0.91 Jul 10
  • 0x4485…215c BUY No $5.00 Jul 6
  • 0x5023…0961 SELL No $4.91 Jul 2
  • 0x7bb8…a0ac BUY No $4.75 Jul 1
  • 0x677b…e6e6 SELL No $7.45 Jun 30
  • 0xb16b…ec6c BUY No $6.00 Jun 30
  • 0x983d…7f39 SELL Yes $0.52 Jun 30
  • 0x52b3…3a58 SELL Yes $1.76 Jun 29
  • 0x59e5…7a2b SELL No $9.70 Jun 29
  • 0x510f…a43c SELL No $27.08 Jun 27
  • 0x7f5b…b202 SELL No $70.32 Jun 27
  • 0x9dad…c0ab SELL No $1.14 Jun 24
  • 0x5f21…b376 SELL Yes $0.44 Jun 20
  • 0x6636…bf37 SELL No $236.97 Jun 13
  • 0x6636…bf37 SELL No $79.74 Jun 11
  • 0x0bf7…43a2 SELL Yes $0.56 Jun 10

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

Comments

Habakkuk Jan 8

A 100kt event is actually pretty rare we usually see one maybe once every 10`20 years. The fact that there's a betting market for it doesn't make it likely.

Kalypsio Jan 3

I mean... If it happens money is basically going to be useless. If I had a few thousands, I'd put it on no and get a guaranteed return...

JackSparrowSentMe Jan 4

tzar bomb was 50mt yet here we are, it would be devastating but not world ending

liandri Feb 26

happened in 2013